PROGRESS IN TALKS PROVIDES NO GUARANTEES FOR PEACE ACCORD – ALIYEV

AzerNews, Azerbaijan
Aug 25 2005

President Ilham Aliyev has made an unexpected statement concerning
the next round of Armenia-Azerbaijan talks on the Upper Garabagh
conflict resolution. “Peace talks have been fruitless. Therefore,
we should be ready for anything”, Aliyev said while visiting the
western Oghuz district on Thursday.

Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents are due to meet in Kazan, Russia
August 26. President Aliyev said that this situation prompts Azerbaijan
to further raise military expenses and thus increase its military
power compared to Armenia. Aliyev said, however, that Azerbaijan will
continue peace talks with Armenia. “As long as there is hope, we should
continue the negotiations.” The President said that the progress in
talks achieved thus far is important but provides no guarantees for
peace, as the parties ‘still have serious differences’. Aliyev noted
that the gist of the ‘Prague process’ is the stage-by-stage conflict
resolution, which envisions liberation of occupied land first and then
an accord between the two sides. “In the conditions of globalization
and enlargement of Europe, separatism cannot exist. Armenia will
face difficulties to live in a modern world with this burden.”
The President said that Armenia cites the safety of Armenian residents
of Upper Garabagh as the key issue in the talks, ‘but this cannot be at
the expense of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity’. Political scholar
Rasim Musabayov said that positive results are unlikely to be achieved
at the upcoming meeting of the two presidents in Russia. “The meeting
will not be any more important than the previous ones”, he said.
“I believe the chances for results at Kazan meeting are 50-50. It may
be fruitful or fruitless. The previous experience shows that the sides
tend to take final steps backward instead of forward when they reach a
turning point. Therefore, I can’t say ahead of time that the meeting
will be beneficial.” Musabayov said the current positions of the
conflicting sides are contradictory, as Azerbaijan calls for withdrawal
of Armenian forces from the occupied territories, while Armenia –
determination of the Upper Garabagh status. “From this viewpoint,
the positions of the sides are not getting any closer. If a compromise
alternative is found, the issue can be moved forward from the current
deadlock.” As for the liberation of seven occupied districts around
Upper Garabagh, the analyst said freeing them simultaneously will be
difficult. “Liberation of the occupied regions based on the ‘5+1+1’
formula seems real,” he said. The formula envisions freeing five
Azeri regions from under Armenian occupation first, followed by
signing of a peace accord and liberation of the other two regions.
Musabayov went on to say that the general situation with the Upper
Garabagh conflict has changed in favor of Azerbaijan over the recent
period. Russia’s positions in the South Caucasus are weakening and
this country’s military bases are being withdrawn from Georgia, while
Armenia is losing communication links with Russia, which is in favor of
Azerbaijan, he said. Armenia is concerned over this, said Musabayov.
“Russia, which is the eternal ally of Armenia, understands too
that it will lose its positions in the Caucasus by prolonging the
conflict resolution.” Musabayov said that another factor stipulating
Azerbaijan’s prevalent position is the country’s increasing financial
potential. Whereas military spending of Armenia makes up $200 million
per year, the figure is $300 million in Azerbaijan. The political
analyst pointed out that Azerbaijan’s potential will allow spending
$500 million for the military in 2006 and bringing the figure to $1
billion in two years. Armenia would have to commit its entire budget
for defense in order to withstand competition, which is impossible,
he said. “Armenians therefore think they should take a step today
rather than be forced to accept peace in a few years. These are the
factors giving a positive impetus to peace. But it is difficult to say
whether this will be enough for Armenia to give up its persistence.”

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress