THE COLLAPSE OF THE COMMONWEALTH BEGINS WITH THE BREAK-UP OF DEFENSE STRUCTURES
by Vladimir Mukhin

Nezavisimaya Gazeta, August 26, 2005, p. 1

Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
August 29, 2005, Monday

Although the scheduled summit of the CIS leaders opens today, it’s
obvious that collective defense cooperation between the CIS member
nations comes to grief. The abolition of the Staff for coordinating
military cooperation and other moves linked with the CIS nations’
unwillingness to participate in collective defense of the CIS air
border and conduct anti-terrorist and peacekeeping operations testify
that the end is close…

For instance, there are plans that ten former Soviet republics
would participate in the active phase of the Combat Commonwealt-2005
exercise of the CIS joint anti-aircraft system, which began on the
Ashuluk firing range in Russia on August 22. In reality, only six
nations participate in such exercises (members of the Organization
of the collective security treaty). It seems that this coalition
fails to reach an agreement as well. Only four countries sent
military units, warplanes and anti-aircraft complexes to Ashuluk –
Armenia, Belarus, Tajikistan and Russia. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan
sent observers. Georgia and Turkmenistan ignore the exercise,
and Ukraine and Uzbekistan participate in the maneuvers only on a
bilateral basis. This is a symptomatic fact. Russia’s closest allies
(Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan) refused to participate in the exercise
and organized alternative maneuvers on the Sary-Shagan firing range
in Kazakhstan in early August. Meanwhile, it would be more advisable
if they participate in the exercise in Ashuluk. Vladimir Mikhailov,
Russian Commander-in-Chief of the Air Force, said that the partners
will create a regional group of forces during the exercise. He noted,
“This is what we seek to achieve.”

Mikhailov said that this group of forces will be controlled
automatically, and all anti-aircraft units will be coordinated by
one command post. He noted, “This has a very important strategic
significance.” Is it strategic if Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan do not
participate in the active phase of the exercise in Ashuluk?

Their decision has military-political reasons. It’s no secret that
Astana seeks to become the leader among the post-Soviet republics
and carries out an alternative military cooperation policy. It’s
no coincidence that President Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan
initiated the abolition of the Staff for coordinating military
cooperation and some other CIS structures. At present Kazakhstan
proposes to conduct all joint exercises on the Sary-Shagan firing
range. The republic states that it’s larger, which would minimize
the possibility of losing missiles deviating from the course. As is
known, a range of such incidents have happened on the Ashuluk firing
range. Missiles launched from this firing range often fell near
Kazakh settlements. Russia agreed with these arguments and discussed
the possibility of testing the S-400 anti-aircraft complex on the
Sary-Shagan firing range. However, Russia has forgotten about it.
Testing of the S-400 complex has been postponed due to financial
problems. All exercises are conducted in Ashuluk.

It should be noted the closest allies’ attitude to Russia changes.
Kyrgyzstan supported the idea of withdrawing the US bases from Central
Asia at the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Astana
but agreed to deploy the US air group withdrawn from Uzbekistan on
its territory after Donald Ramsfeld’s visit.

Moscow has repeatedly emphasized the necessity of demilitarizing
the Caspian region. In the meantime, Astana supports Washington’s
initiatives to strengthen the Pentagon’s influence in this oil
region. (…)

In other words, the collapse of the CIS has begun. The CIS nations’
attitude to Russia, which previously determined military policy in
the post-Soviet republics, has changed. Russia’s influence goes down
along with the increase of the CIS nations’ desire to realize their
own defense interests. Unfortunately, Moscow does not manage to awake
the CIS nations’ interest in constructive defense cooperation.