THE FLIP SIDE
by Theresa Freese

WHAT IMPACT WILL THE WITHDRAWAL OF RUSSIAN TROOPS HAVE ON AJARIA?
>>From EurasiaNet.

Transitions Online, Czech Republic
Aug 29 2005

BATUMI, Georgia | As Russia completes the first stage of its base
withdrawal from Georgia, residents of Ajaria are concerned about the
economic implications of the departure of Russian troops.

The parameters for Russia’s withdrawal from its last two remaining
military bases in Georgia were set by a joint declaration singed in
late May. While eager to see the Russian military leave, Georgian
President Mikheil Saakashvili has acknowledged that the withdrawal
could exacerbate “social issues.”

Government officials recognize that Russia’s withdrawal will have a
broad economic impact on the two regions – Ajaria and the southern,
primarily ethnic Armenian region of Samtskhe-Javakheti – where the
bases are located. New roads, social welfare support and military
food procurement contracts for local farmers have been promised for
Akhalkalaki, site of the Russian 62nd base in Samtskhe-Javakheti,
which is slated to close in 2007. Detailed plans for Batumi, however,
have not been announced. The Russian withdrawal from its 12th base
there is scheduled for completion in 2008.

Kakha Shavadze, minister of finance and economy for the autonomous
republic of Ajaria, said there are “no concrete plans” for replacing
the 12th Russian base in Batumi, aside from turning the nearby Gonio
military training ground – one of three main military facilities in the
region – into a resort after the Russians leave. Asked to comment on
re-employment plans for civilian personnel at the Batumi base, Ajarian
First Deputy Minister for Health, Labor and Social Welfare Nugzar
Surmanidze indicated that planning was still in the early stages.

“Let [Russia] withdraw the bases and we’ll solve the problems with
help from our friends,” Surmanidze said, adding that he did not know
the number of Georgians employed at the base. Surmanidze’s response
suggested that assistance provided by the United States and the
European Union would comprise a vital part of any social-welfare
strategy.

Unanswered questions surround the work prospects for Georgians
employed as military personnel at the Batumi base. As part of their
service, these individuals also hold Russian citizenship. (The Georgian
constitution does not recognize dual citizenship.) In a 31 May speech,
Saakashvili announced that Georgian citizens employed as military
personnel at Russian bases would be eligible to transfer into the
Georgian armed services.

Saakashvili’s broad offer applies to only those “who are residents
of Georgia and who are citizens of Georgia” otherwise, he offers
“guarantees of other employment or social benefits.”

Meanwhile, Russia is actively promoting a job replacement policy for
ethnic Georgian servicemen at the bases, and a visa assistance scheme
for their families. “In principle, they have all been offered to
continue [their] service in the Russian military outside of Georgia,”
Col. Vladimir Kuparadze, deputy commander of Russian troops in the
South Caucasus, said. “We have had discussions with soldiers and
sergeants on contract service, and the vast majority has agreed to go.”

Kuparadze said it was “difficult to say” just how many servicemen
might permanently transfer into the Russian army, but added that
a large number of people want to take [Russian] citizenship. By his
estimates, some 850 ethnic Georgian “civilians and military personnel”
are located at the 12th base in Batumi. Figures are similar for
Akhalkalaki, he stated.

To facilitate that transfer, Kuparadze stated, the Russian embassy
in Tbilisi is considering simplifying procedures for family members
of Georgian service personnel who hold Russian citizenship to obtain
Russian passports. Yevgeni Ivanov, spokesperson for the embassy,
said that Russian law only allows the consulate to issue visas and
residency permits to these individuals.

Discussing a severance package for civilian personnel, Col. Kuparadze
said “Russian citizens” will all receive a two-month salary,
approximately 400 lari ($222), as compensation as well as an apartment
in Russia and a pension upon reaching retirement age.

Representatives of the Georgian Defense Ministry, which is responsible
for the implementation of re-training and employment programs,
declined to comment. A spokesperson for Ministry of Foreign Affairs
said that statements about re-employment schemes could be made only
after the government finalized plans covering the future of the
vacated Russian facilities.

Some officials appear reluctant to try to accommodate the base
workers. Giorgi Charkviani – an Ajarian representative of the office
of the Georgian ombudsman and public defender, who led rallies in fall
2004 calling for Russia’s withdrawal from the Batumi base – suggested
that no formal re-employment program for Georgians working at the 12th
base exists because they have a “pro-Russia psychology,” and because
Russia already “offers them positions, pensions, accommodation,
and high salaries.”

Civilian base employees are readying themselves for a stiff drop in
pay. Monthly salaries for civilians at the 12th base average about 200
laris ($110.60), according to one construction worker at a facility
in Khelvachauri, about 10 kilometers from Batumi. By comparison,
salaries in Ajaria average about 130 laris, or $65, per month,
according to the State Department for Statistics of Georgia.

“People from all over Ajaria work at the [facilities],” said the
worker. “Our main concern is that we are able to take care of our
families.”

Fifteen percent of Ajaria’s population of 400,000 is unemployed, said
Shavadze, the Ajarian finance official, who adds that 59 percent of
the region’s residents live below the poverty line. Those figures,
however, are several percentage points lower than 2004 numbers,
a fact attributed by Shavadze to new construction jobs and an
improving regional economy. Local leaders seem to be aware that the
base withdrawal could add to the existing unemployment problem. “We
are facing serious social problems,” Shavadze said.

Shavadze and other regional officials hope a strategy to develop
tourism in Ajaria could alleviate the economic damage done by
the Russian troops’ departure. “Our main economic direction is
privatization, and our concentration is on tourism – to sell hotels
and tourist centers,” said Shavadze.

The Gonio training ground, which includes a firing range and
approximately 40 hectares of seaside property, will be turned into
a “resort town like Las Vegas,” according to Ajarian Minister of
Tourism Temur Zoidze. President Saakashvili himself has traveled
frequently to Ajaria this summer to promote the region as a tourist
destination. Some 35,000 tourists, mostly Georgian, are estimated to
have visited Ajaria so far in 2005. Roughly 11,000 visited in 2004,
Zoidze said. The numbers for May and June 2005 alone mark a three-fold
increase over the same period in 2004, he claimed.

Some base workers are skeptical that tourism will enable them to make
up for lost revenue following the withdrawal. “You can’t find jobs,
everyone employs their own relatives,” complained one kiosk-owner
in Khelvachauri.

“Tourists won’t reach us,” added the construction worker from
Khelvachauri.

Theresa Freese is a freelance journalist and political analyst who
has been conducting research on unresolved conflicts in the South
Caucasus since 2003. This is a partner-post from EurasiaNet.