DON’T ALLOW A NEW ARMS RACE IN THE SOUTHERN CAUCASUS
By Sabine Freizer

Daily Star – Lebanon
Aug 31 2005

On August 27, the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan met on the
sidelines of the Commonwealth of Independent States summit in Kazan,
Russia, to discuss the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
That brutal war, which killed some 20,000 people and displaced over a
million, has been locked in a shaky cease-fire for a decade, hindering
development throughout the southern Caucasus.

Kazan did not produce miracles – or even headlines. However, it
provided an opportunity for Presidents Robert Kocharian of Armenia
and Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan, in their second face-to-face meeting
in four months, to encourage their foreign ministers to continue
talks and consider proposals prepared by the Minsk Group of the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. It was not the
hoped-for ice-breaker, but it was an important step forward in the
resolution of that long-frozen conflict.

Over half a million Azerbaijanis were forcibly displaced by the war and
continue to live in precarious conditions in decrepit camps, unsure of
their future. Nagorno-Karabakh forces backed by Armenia continue to
control seven Azerbaijani districts in addition to Nagorno-Karabakh
itself. Such dramatic and painful consequences have prevented the
two sides from making a deal, with the rhetoric in Baku and Yerevan
effectively on war-footing for 10 years. Since major hostilities
in and around Nagorno-Karabakh halted in 1994, the parties to the
conflict have been unable to sign a single agreement bringing them
closer to a political settlement.

However, for over a year now, the foreign ministers of Armenia and
Azerbaijan have been engaged in a new round of talks, supplemented
by meetings between their presidents. The United States, France and
Russia – the co-chairs of the Minsk Group, responsible for facilitating
negotiations – are expressing rare optimism that a settlement may be
within reach.

An actual peace-building process could begin with the withdrawal from
occupied territories and would most likely end with a legal process
(or a vote), including the participation of Karabakh Armenians and
Karabakh Azeris, to determine the future status of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Somewhere in between, displaced Azeris would start returning home.
Kocharian and Aliyev not only have to agree on these fundamental
points, they need to do so very publicly to begin preparing their
people for a settlement.

Last time, when Armenia and Azerbaijan were close to a deal after
negotiations in Key West, Florida, in 2001, the presidents did not
work on getting public backing for their efforts, and public reaction
to a political compromise was hostile. Former Minsk Group co-chair,
Ambassador Carey Cavanaugh from the United States, summed up Key
West’s failure, saying: “The presidents were ahead of their people.”

The Azerbaijani and Armenian people have been receiving contradictory
messages from their authorities for years. On the one hand, they are
told the conflict should be resolved peacefully; on the other, they
hear there is no room for compromise. While there may have been little
ethnic basis for the war when it started, today official propaganda
has helped insure the build-up of mutual hatred and contempt. The
near complete breakdown in communication and friendship ties between
Armenians and Azerbaijanis, between Karabakh Armenians and Karabakh
Azeris, means that neither population has much understanding of the
other’s grievances and fears.

Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders have long relied on tough talk
at home to boost their domestic approval ratings. Today, as the
opposition in both countries is threatening to take power – after the
November 6 parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan and a crucial vote on
constitutional amendments in Armenia later that month – leaders may
feel it is easier to stick with the proven methods of chauvinism for
keeping their hold on power. Some evidence of this came last month,
when Aliyev announced a 70-percent increase in military spending,
which has, overall, gone up from $135 million in 2003 to $300 million
in 2005, and Armenian officials replied that their army had resources
to match that sum.

An arms race in the Southern Caucasus and a reversion to nationalist
rhetoric will not help. The presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia have
a chance to lead their populations on a road toward a settlement,
and they should act boldly and take it. They should begin by promoting
contacts between their people, as well as between Karabakh Armenians
and Azeris. After Kazan, they can begin a new journey, showing their
people and the world that they are leaders who will not miss this
historical chance to bring peace, prosperity and development to their
divided region.

Sabine Freizer is Caucasus Project Director for the International
Crisis Group (). This commentary was written for
THE DAILY STAR.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress