Moscow doubts Armenian constitutional reforms for Kocharyan’s third term

Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Moscow
31 Aug 05

Excerpt from report by Viktoriya Panfilova and Nelli Orlova
in Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta on 31 August headlined
“Armenbasy. President Kocharyan is trying to amend constitution in
order to remain in power”

In the footsteps of Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan,
and Belarus, which are consistently switching to a near-indefinite
essentially monarchical form of government, the possibility of
extending the term of the incumbent president has unexpectedly begun
to be widely discussed in Armenia, which seemed to be clearly oriented
towards European democratic values.

At an extraordinary session on 29 August the republic’s parliament
began the second reading of draft amendments to the constitution.
Armenian President Robert Kocharyan’s staff claims that this is
necessary in order to bring the country’s basic law “into line with
European standards”. However, in observers’ opinion, it is very likely
that during the process of examination the package of amendments
will be transformed into a draft new Armenian Constitution. In that
case the incumbent head of state may receive the right to begin
his presidential career from scratch, so to speak, in other words,
to remain in office for at least another two terms.

Under the current constitutional provisions, President Kocharyan
cannot run for a third term. But if a new constitution is adopted in
Armenia, this possibility cannot be ruled out. The possibility of
such a transformation of the republic’s constitution has seriously
alarmed the Armenian opposition. [Passage omitted]

However, the Armenian authorities see no grounds for these opposition
misgivings. For instance, Viktor Sogomonyan, President Robert
Kocharyan’s press secretary, has told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that the
changes under consideration in parliament are “merely amendments
to the current Armenian Constitution”. “They are legally drawn up
as amendments, and that is what they will be. The changes to the
constitution will not entail the adoption of a new basic law,” Viktor
Sogomonyan told Nezavisimaya Gazeta .

However, Russia also doubts the sincerity of the Armenian
authorities. In the opinion of Nezavisimaya Gazeta’s informed source
in the Russian presidential administration, “the transformation of
the amendments in question into a new draft Armenian Constitution
and its subsequent adoption are inevitable”.

“So far as I am aware, all the main Armenian political forces have
already reached a consensus about this. There can be no doubt that the
amendments will become the final version of the Armenian Constitution,”
the high-ranking representative of the Kremlin administration told
Nezavisimaya Gazeta . At the same time he doubts the likelihood of a
scenario whereby Robert Kocharyan will have a third presidential term.

“The changes to the constitution can be regarded more as a concession
by Armenia’s leadership to pressure from the Council of Europe, and
also partly as a step to accommodate the domestic opposition. The draft
proposed amendments are aimed at turning Armenia into a parliamentary
republic and expanding the powers of parliament and the prime
minister. Moreover, Kocharyan has repeatedly declared that this is
his last term. In all probability, he is accepting these concessions
in order subsequently to make a peaceful departure without waiting
for domestic political instability and maybe reserving the post of
premier for himself,” Nezavisimaya Gazeta’s source said.

He said it is very likely that the current regime’s man in the next
elections and therefore Robert Kocharyan’s successor will be Serzh
Sarkisyan, the Armenian defence minister. [Passage omitted]