AZERI EXPERT ON NK: ALIYEV DEPENDS ON WEST OPINION

Pan Armenian News

06.09.2005 04:52

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ “I do not consider that the current “Prague
process” will result in a specific outcome, head of the Department of
Conflictology and Migration of the Institute of Peace and Democracy
Arif Yunusov stated in an interview with PanARMENIAN.Net. “Our peoples
were suggested various options. And they now propose a recurrent one
that can be summed up as follows: try to unite two latest options –
the package one with the stepwise one,” he added. “On the one hand,
Armenia returns 5 occupied regions around Nagorno Karabakh (Lachin and
Kelbajar regions will still remain under Armenians’ control). Refugees
return to these regions, communication resumes between the parties to
conflict. The most important issue – the NK status – will be decided
in 10-15 years via a referendum. Now discussion between the parties
concerns technical matters: when to hold the referendum (in 10, 15,
25 or 50 years), who will take part in it, etc. However, a general
agreement is available,” A. Yunusov remarked. “Why I am pessimistically
predisposed? The point is that both the Presidents and our peoples
are hostages of the sentiments and views already available, as well as
the geopolitical situation in the region. People in Armenia are fully
convinced that the Karabakh issue is in fact solved, one merely has to
wait for the time when both the international community and the Azeri
people themselves “ripen” to understand that fact. I.e. the fact that
NK should be part of Armenia or become an independent state. Being
part of Azerbaijan in any form is out of question. Thus, expecting
compromises from Kocharian is not serious,” the political scientist
stated. As of Azerbaijan, to the contrary, A. Yunusov added, “the
discontent over the talks and the number of war advocates to liberate
Karabakh increase.” However, Azeri authorities depend on the West and
first of all Americans very much. The large money invested in Caspian
oil prevents the West from considering the settlement of the Karabakh
issue by force. I.e. Ilham Aliyev depends on the opinion of the West,
the Azeri expert emphasized. “Besides, Azeri authorities consider that
in a year huge oil dollars will flow to Azerbaijan and the Armenian
economy will be in a deplorable condition in a few years. Thus, one
even does not have to fight – Armenia will fall to your feet itself,”
Yunusov stated. In his words, strong discontent with the Minsk Group
is available in the Azeri society, as well as the hard political and
economic situation in the country (Azerbaijan – editor’s note). Thus
Aliyev has to maneuver.” “Like Kocharian he does not want to resort
to serious talks, as these demand considerable concessions. This is
pregnant with losing popularity among one’s own people. Both the
authorities and the peoples are not ready to compromise today yet,”
Yunusov summed up.