KREMLIN LOSING WAR FOR NORTH CAUCASUS
Mikhail Zygar

MosNews, Russia
Sept 5 2005

Kommersant.ru

The tragedy in Beslan happened four months after the start of Putin’s
second term. In fact, he began with this tragedy, and not with his
inauguration. Beslan has become a landmark that separates Putin-1
policy from Putin-2.

The Russian authorities learned several lessons after Beslan which
Vladimir Putin pointed out in his famous mourning speech. The Kremlin
decided not to change just its attitude towards security – it changed
all its policies. And it was successful in doing so.

The most important promise Putin made was to adopt “the complex of
measures that would unite the country.” He meant to replace elected
governors with appointed ones. This step made it impossible for the
regions to argue with the federal center. The heads of the local
administrations become more compliant, and the ones that didn’t left
their posts.

Another important goal for the authorities after Beslan became the
“mobilization of the nation in the face of a common threat.”

“Terrorists receive the most effective response when they encounter
not only a powerful state but also a united civil society,” the
president said.

This goal was also reached. Opposition in Russia disappeared. Not
a single opposition party reacted to Beslan. There was no kind of
independent commission created.

Moreover, the opposition totally missed Beslan. The past year proved
that the opposition is extinct. Neither the communists, nor the
liberals reacted to further political crises like the monetization
of welfare benefits, the events in Blagoveshchensk and the North
Caucasus. The opposition became a marginal body with the “face”
of Eduard Limonov.

One more element illustrating “the organization and unification of
civil society” was the final victory over television. Right after
Beslan the news in fact died. There were no discussions after Beslan.

Beslan changed Russia not only politically but psychologically as
well. Russians started to think that there cannot be democracy and
order at the same time. And to get the latter the people should be
ready to give up the first. In October of last year, a month after
Beslan, according to a poll by the Levada Center, 60 percent of
Russians were ready to sacrifice temporarily “some constitutional
freedoms” and 59 percent agreed with the closure of media that
questioned presidential policy. However, 79 percent recognized that
the authorities could not protect them from terrorism.

Beslan did not noticeably lower the rating of the president. However,
if the population supports the president, it does not necessarily mean
that it is happy with the current situation. According to the polls,
in May of this year 43 percent saw around them increased disorder,
chaos and anarchy. In other words, the authorities do not enforce
order enough.

The year after Beslan was very successful for the authorities. The
Kremlin got everything it wanted. However, it came with some losses.

The main problem, which led to Beslan was left unresolved – terrorism
in the Caucasus. Before Beslan all the troubling news was coming
from Chechnya and rarely from Ingushetia. After Beslan the war spread
across the entire North Caucasus.

Last September, the people of Beslan went into the streets to
demand the resignation of President Dzasokhov. Moscow refused. The
authorities thought if the Ossetians were able to remove their
president by street protests, tomorrow other Caucasus people would
follow their example. And they were right. A month later the crowd
seized the Government House in Karachaevo-Cherkesia and demanded the
resignation of the president. However, Moscow said “no” again. The
Kremlin was afraid that if it gave in, all the authorities in the
North Caucasus would be swept away.

It does not mean that the Kremlin trusts the local Caucasus rulers.

The now famous secret report of the presidential envoy to the North
Caucasus, Dmitry Kozak, describes a pretty bleak picture in the region.

“The authorities of the North Caucasus republics are detached from
society and turned into an enclosed class. The corporate society
that was formed in the power structures monopolized the political
and economical resources, which serves only their own interests. All
the high positions in the republics are occupied by relatives,” the
envoy told the president. In other words, the Kremlin knows what is
going on but cannot change anything.

By doing nothing Moscow ran itself into a dead end. So far, the main
struggle in the region is going against the local authorities. By
going against their local presidents and governments, the people of
the Caucasus are asking Moscow for help. They hope that President
Putin’s involvement will change the situation. However, if Moscow were
to replace those hated leaders and exchange them for similar ones,
the people would start struggling against Moscow.

The power crisis in the region has already created a local civil war.

News of conflicts is now coming not only from Chechnya and
Ingushetia, but also from Dagetsan, Karachaevo-Cherkessk, and
Kabardino-Balkaria. Tanks and heavy artillery are attacking houses
in the towns of Kaspiysk, Makhachkala, Nalchik and Nazran.

Law-enforcement officers are being killed almost every week.

In his “Beslan speech,” Vladimir Putin said that he won’t let “millions
of people submerge into a chain of bloody conflicts like in Karabakh,
Pri-Dnestrovie and other tragic places.”

However, it looks like the North Caucasus is sinking more and more
into conflict.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress