NOVEMBER TRIAL FOR KOCHARIAN AND ALIYEV
By Tatoul Hakobian

AZG Armenian Daily #159
07/09/2005

Armenian President Needs 800.000 Votes, His Azeri Counterpart –
A Humble Parliament

Even the worst constitution of the world can be voted for if
authorities of a country enjoy popularity. A common voter will never
read the package of constitutional amendments if he knows that its
authors are Robert Kocharian and his coalition. A common voter will
not simply take part in the referendum in late November for several
reasons. Firstly, the constitution is largely designed not for him,
as it is the common citizens whose rights are violated every now
and then. Secondly, elections in Armenia (constitutional referendum
being an election) in last 10 years were rigged, and the citizens of
Armenia to be involved in another fraud. Thirdly, the opposition (part
of which enjoys people’s favor for openly condemning the authorities)
will launch active campaign against the constitutional referendum.

The authorities are hardly to have serious problems with
the opposition: all TV channels are somehow supervised by the
president’s administration and some are even regulated directly from
26 Baghramian Str (president’s residence). The ratings of Armenian TV
channels are not higher than the ratings of Armen Ashotian, Galust
Sahakian or Armenian Revolutionary Federation. Armenian citizens
negatively responded to young extremist Ashotian’s speech at the
parliament. Patriotic exhortations (such as “no” to referendum will
endanger Karabakh or will throw democratic processes of Armenia back)
of Vahan Hovhannisian, Tigran Torosian or Artur Baghdasarian will
yield no result. Such statements would have been fair and acceptable
if Hovhannisian had condemned the rigged presidential elections
of 2003 and Baghdasarian and Torosian had done so in regard to the
parliamentary elections of the same year and the April 13 violence.

The November referendum can turn into a trial for the Armenian
authorities. European structures and the US welcome the package of
constitutional amendments but meanwhile they warn that the November
referendum should be free, just and transparent. The authorities will
have to make all-out efforts to secure 800.000 “yes” votes for the
referendum in current situation.

Undoubtedly, if the voters say “yes” to the constitutional referendum
in free and just vote then it will considerably raise Armenia’s image
in the eyes of the world community.

The parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan will precede referendum
in Armenia. The international community tends to place democratic
achievements of Armenia and Azerbaijan on the same scales despite
the fact that Armenia is a step ahead of its neighbor.

Constitutional referendum may well be a relief against the background
of Azeri elections. Besides, it’s clear as a day that President
Aliyev’s situation is more painful. The US and Europe keep on pressing
on Baku. Every week brings new American and European representatives
to Azerbaijan.

Aliyev junior is facing a difficult choice this time. He has
to tackle European pressure from on one hand and form a humble
parliament composed of Heydar Aliyev’s Yeni Azerbaijan Party and his
dynasty members on the other. Under the US pressure, Ilham Aliyev was
compelled to enlist former parliament speaker Rasul Guliyev currently
sheltered in USA. Former president of Azerbaijan, Ayaz Muthalibov,
was also registered as candidate on September 5.

The Azeri opposition is encouraged by the US pressure on
Aliyev. Following Ukraine’s example, orange tents tailored to make up
“small towns” in front of the Central Electoral Committee and square
of Baku have been ordered.