Poland Must Strive to Make Sure Eastern Europe’s Role Is Appreciated by Nato and EU Strategists

Polish News Bulletin
Sep 07, 2005

The following is a summary of an article, featured in Rzeczpospolita,
by Stanislaw Koziej, retired general and expert on military matters.

Poland’s security has recently come to be perceived, writes Koziej,
almost solely in the context of the fight against terrorism and the
proliferation of the weapons of mass destruction. It would, however,
be a mistake to focus only on this dimension. The events in Ukraine
and Belarus and Russia’s policy towards Poland have made that clear.
We need to keep monitoring the situation in the East.

The area between the Nato and the EU, on the one hand, and Russia,
on the other, is a strategic region of key significance for global
security. In terms of global opportunities and threats, it is the
second most important, after the Middle East, strategic area in the
world. Here lie the possibilities of building a security system
encompassing Europe and North America. But here too the greatest
threats may arise, including the threat of a nuclear war.

That is because of the presence of the third, besides the Nato and
the EU, actor of European security, ie Russia. Analysts have been
labouring to find an answer to the question about the direction in
which events will likely go in Russia. Will it be a constructive and
active strategic partner in the building of a common security system,
or will it focus chiefly on its transformation from an empire into
a free-market democracy? Will those processes be gradual and quiet,
or should we be expecting dramatic, or even bleak scenarios? – Risk
of Chaos

The lack of immediate answers to such questions defines the nature of
the Nato’s and the EU’s strategic needs in this area. The fundamental
question is whether Russia will be a partner or an adversary. Will
it be possible to build common security with it, or will it remain a
source of instability? The Nato and the EU are declaring they want
to have Russia as a partner. That has fundamental significance for
Poland from the point of view of its security interests. But it takes
two to create a partnership.

Yet Russia has continued perceiving the West, and especially the
Nato, as a suspect partner or a potential opponent. Perhaps it
is only tactics; in practice, Russia has participated, on a scale
consistent with its capacities, in peacekeeping missions. Still,
there is no guarantee that Russia’s strategic political course will
not radicalise itself. The Kremlin’s recent moves in domestic policy
and in policy towards Poland offer little cause for optimism.

The second strategic factor in this area is Ukraine. The existence of
a democratic Ukraine, a favourable development of its partnership with
the West, including the prospect of Nato accession, ensure strategic
equilibrium in Eastern Europe and are consistent with Poland’s
strategic interests. Poland should be supporting the development of
that partnership, as well as supporting Ukraine in its path towards
democracy and prosperity.

Another aspect of the strategic situation in Eastern Europe is
Belarus. In itself, it does not represent any significant strategic
problem for either the Nato or the EU, but it may become a serious
problem for Poland. Its natural gravitation towards Russia may
pass through various phases, but that is a matter of the Belarussian
people’s and state’s sovereign decisions. A potential full integration
with Russia would change little in the strategic sense compared with
the present.

The situation could change if Belarus embarked, like Ukraine, on a
course towards full sovereignty. In such a case, the reaction from
Russia would likely be even more vigorous than with Ukraine. But
that prospect seems rather distant today. Strategically, Russia and
Belarus can be treated as one. – Asian Challenge

A separate challenge for the Nato and the EU is posed by the situation
in the Northern Caucasus post-Soviet states bound with the Nato by
the Partnership for Peace: Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia, where
ethnic conflicts have continued to smoulder in Abkhasia, Southern
Osetya, and Karabakh. The same may become true for the Central Asian
republics. The peacekeeping missions carried out there by Russia
under the auspices of the CIS have been ineffective.

The CIS has no future. It lacks strength, dynamism, and, above all,
its members’ political will to work effectively together. The countries
stricken by conflicts will not be able to solve those conflicts by
themselves, so pressure will be growing on international organisations,
especially the Nato, to participate actively in solving them. It
will be hard for the Nato to evade this challenge, and this aspect
should be taken into consideration in the debate on the organisation’s
new strategy.

The Eastern European strategic area represents a whole range of
opportunities, challenges, and threats. Those are opportunities and
challenges related to cooperation in expanding the area of common
security, as well as to the need for becoming involved in the solving
of local conflicts. Poland has to strive actively for those issues
to be taken into account on a permanent basis in the Nato’s and the
EU’s strategic concepts and current security policies.