NAGORNO-KARABAKH: VIEWING THE CONFLICT FROM THE GROUND

International Crisis Group, Belgium
Sept 14 2005

Europe Report N°166
14 septembre 2005
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh
is the most significant obstacle to peace and stability in the South
Caucasus. Eleven years into a ceasefire, the parties have been unable
to sign a single document bringing them closer to a settlement.

Whatever is being done at the internationally mediated negotiations,
at ground level resumed war appears a real possibility. There is need
to counter the hate propaganda and demonising engaged in by both sides
and unlock the potential for confidence building and dialogue between
average Azeris and Armenians before the memories of cohabitation fade
and the divide becomes virtually unbridgeable.

Nagorno-Karabakh has aspirations for independence and argues with
some reason that it has a democratically-elected government that is
meeting the preconditions of statehood. However, it is internationally
recognised as part of Azerbaijan and is still highly dependant
on Armenia for its military security and economic survival: over
half its army are believed to be Armenian citizens, while Yerevan
covers 50 per cent of the budget through an “interstate loan” that
is virtually interest free and unlikely to be paid back. Azeris
do not participate in its political, economic, cultural and social
institutions. Nagono-Karabakh has mono-ethnic institutions and become
one of the world’s most militarised societies.

Deprived of the basic right to return to their homes, over half a
million Azeris displaced from Nagorno-Karabakh and seven adjacent
districts have become highly dependent on the Azerbaijani state,
without a clear sense of their future. For years Baku’s policies
toward the displaced were designed to meet short-term needs, with
the expectation they could return home soon. There was more than a
hint that efforts to integrate them better were not pushed so as to
use their plight to score political points. The government’s current
strategy emphasises more sustainable solutions but the displaced remain
poorer and more disadvantaged than their fellow citizens, struggling
to increase participation in political life not only to speed up
prospects for return but also to improve their immediate situation.

Armenian and Azerbaijani public opinion on how to resolve the conflict
is as divided as ever. Nothing has been done to prepare people in
either country for any agreement. Karabakh Armenians’ expressions
of confidence about their independent future, and Karabakh Azeris’
frustration and anger about their plight as displaced persons are
deeply at odds. Neither community appears prepared to agree to the kind
of steps toward resolution of the conflict currently being considered
by the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers in the negotiations
sponsored by the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe
(OSCE).

For many historical, demographical, geographical, and economic
factors, Azeris and Armenians living in and around the conflict zone
are dependent on each other. Yet they are deeply divided by mistrust.

Demonisation of the “other”, rising military expenditures, and
increasing ceasefire violations are all ominous signs that time for
a peaceful settlement may be running out.

Parallel processes are needed for a stable settlement. This report
explores how the Armenian and Azeri communities from Nagorno-Karabakh
and the surrounding districts live today and view the potential
resolution of the conflict. A subsequent report will shortly assess the
OSCE-sponsored diplomacy and attempt to bridge the gap between it and
the situation on the ground, focusing with specific recommendations
on both the main issues that must be treated in a peace agreement
and on what needs to be done to further inter-communal reconciliation.

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