AZG Armenian Daily #169, 21/09/2005

Analysis

AZERBAIJAN COULD WIN A MILITARY VICTORY OVER ARMENIA BY 2015

Yet, U.S. and Western European Experts do not envision Karabakh’s return to
an “autonomous” status within Azerbaijan

According to the survey conducted by the Armenian Assembly of America (AAA),
most U.S. and Western European expert-respondents see a significant shift in
terms of military capability in favor of Azerbaijan over Armenia due to the
increase in its oil revenue. One-third of respondents predict that
Azerbaijan could win a military victory over Armenia by 2015. Asked “In your
opinion, a resumption of open warfare in the near future would see which
outcome?”, 42 per cent believed “Armenians win”, “stalemate”- 29 per cent,
“no comment”- 29 per cent, and no one believed “Azeris win.” On the other
hand, only 4 per cent of respondents predict that Armenia could win a
military victory over Azerbaijan by 2015.

Most respondents see Azerbaijan’s enrichment from increased oil production,
along with other Azerbaijan-related developments, to have the biggest effect
on Armenia, “for good or for worse.”

Starting in 2004, the Office of Research & Information at the AAA conducts a
yearly survey in an attempt to gauge expert opinion of how Armenian issues
are perceived within the United States and Western Europe. The survey
(conducted by Tim Manook (St. Andrews University, UK) and supervised by Emil
Sanamyan (AAA) respondents include former U.S. government officials, think
tank analysts and university academics. The survey was conducted firstly
through e-mail, and a certain number of follow-ups required telephone calls.
There were 24 responses for 2005 survey, and the total number (24)
represents approximately a 5-10 per cent sample of the targeted expert
community that watches developments in Armenia and the region.

None of the respondents envision Karabakh’s return to an “autonomous” status
within Azerbaijan, while one-fifth sees its formal reunification with
Armenia or independence. At the same time a solid majority – 62 per cent –
sees a persistent status quo. As in 2004 survey, the overwhelming response
was a continuation of the status quo. Respondents pointed to the
“Cyprusisation” of the Karabakh conflict.

Most respondents do not believe that recent revolutions in Georgia, Ukraine
and Kyrgyzstan would lead to destabilization of either Armenia or
Azerbaijan. Asked “U.S. foreign policy maintains great emphasis on
supporting democratization. How do you think recent events in Georgia,
Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan will impact upon Armenia?”, 48 per cent predicted
“Lead to more responsible governance”, 22 per cent – “Have no tangible
effect” and only 4 per cent sees “Lead to democratic revolution”. As of
Azerbaijan, 25 per cent believes “Lead to instability and government
crackdown”, 25 per cent – “Lead to more responsible governance”, 29 per cent
– “Have no tangible effect” and only 8 per cent sees “Lead to democratic
revolution”.

Respondents are more inclined to think that both political and military
influence of the United States in the South Caucasus will grow and
intensify. They have become significantly more pessimistic about the course
of U.S.- Russian relations, with a majority seeing this year increased
competition. Respondents have become significantly more pessimistic about
the course of U.S.-Iranian relations, with a majority predicting increased
conflict short of a military confrontation.

The majority of U.S. and Western European Experts believe that Turkey would
eventually join the European Union by 2020-25. Still, a majority does not
believe that Ankara could positively address the Armenian Genocide. While
still a minority, more than 45 per cent of respondents expect to see U.S.
affirmation of the Armenian Genocide in the next five years. To a question
“How do you see the development of U.S.-Turkey relations over the next three
years?” 62 per cent predicted “Continuation of status quo”, 17 per cent –
“Closer cooperation.”

In a survey, there was one general question: “Finally, which developments in
the region do you perceive will have the most effect on Armenia (for good or
for worse)?” Accumulatively, 45 per cent of concern is focused over issues
connected with Azerbaijan, 16 per cent with Turkey, 11 and 9 per cent
respectively Russia and Georgia, leaving 19 per cent concerns with “other”
issues, such as Iran, Iraq and so on.

By Tatoul Hakobian