Regnum, Moscow, in Russian
22 Sep 05
AZERBAIJAN TO BEAT ARMENIA BY 2015 – EXPERTS SAY
“Drastic changes will take place in favour of Azerbaijan in its
military confrontation with Armenia in the next few years,” this is
the result of an expert poll carried out by the Armenian Assembly of
America (AAA). According to the Yerevan newspaper Azg, 24 American
and west European experts, former officials and analysts took part in
the poll.
About 33% of the respondents consider that Azerbaijan will be able to
gain a military victory over Armenia by 2015. Only 4% consider that
Armenia will gain a victory by 2015. At the same time, 42% of the
respondents said that if the war starts in the near future, the
Armenian side will win, 29% predicted that both sides will lose and
others found it difficult to give a clear answer.
As for the status of Karabakh, 62% of the respondents think that
there is no point in expecting the status quo to change in the near
future.
International experts also expressed their pessimism about future
relations between the USA and Russia and Iran. At the same time, they
predict the further strengthening of American influence in the
Caucasus. They predict that Turkey will not join the European Union
earlier than 2020-25. Ankara will not recognize the Armenian genocide
and strengthen relations with Washington, although the USA might
recognize the Armenian genocide in the next five years, some of the
experts believe.
Asked who in the region will have the greatest impact on Armenia
(positive or negative), 45% said Azerbaijan, 16% – Turkey, 11% –
Russia, 9% – Georgia, as well as Iran, Iraq, etc.