ANALYSIS-CYPRUS WILL HINDER NOT BLOCK TURKEY EU TALKS
By Michele Kambas

Reuters
09/28/05 09:56 ET

NICOSIA, Sept 28 (Reuters) – A divided Cyprus is unlikely to block
Turkey’s path in talks on joining the European Union but will attempt
to wring concessions from the big, Muslim nation every step of the way,
analysts said.

Greek Cypriots, who represent Cyprus in the EU, will be reluctant to
use their veto against Turkey in the talks, which start on Monday,
for fear of further damaging U.N. efforts to end the Mediterranean
island’s 31-year division, officials said.

But they could still create headaches for the EU in each of the 35
sections of membership negotiations, known as chapters, which require
unanimity from all 25 members. The EU is already facing objections
from members such as France and Austria.

“It is our right (to use the veto), as it is the right of other member
states, but we are not thinking about it right now,” said a senior
Cypriot official who requested anonymity.

Analysts say Cyprus is sure to constantly remind both Turkey and
the EU of any shortcomings, but Greek Cypriots know it is in their
interest to have Ankara in the EU rather than out.

“It must be very distasteful for them to allow the process to go
forward while Turkey is in occupation of part of Cyprus, but you have
to balance that by looking forward in the hope Turkey becomes more
moderate and European,” said analyst James Ker-Lindsay, director of
Civilitas Research in Nicosia.

DIVISION RUN DEEP

In divided Nicosia, Greek Cypriots can see a massive Turkish Cypriot
flag painted on the jagged mountain slopes on Cyprus’s northern rim.
Both sides are heavily militarised.

A ceasefire line laced with mines and patrolled by a U.N peacekeeping
force separates Greeks from the smaller and less wealthy Turkish
Cypriot community in the north.

“This isn’t Austria. The Austrians can have their opinions but they
are not going to suffer if the door is closed in Turkey’s face.
Cyprus will,” said Ker-Lindsay.

Cyprus, internationally recognised and Greek Cypriot-ruled, had hoped
Turkey’s EU aspirations would help re-unite the island invaded by
Turkey 1974 after a brief Greek-led coup.

But the United Nations abandoned its efforts in 2004, stung by the
rejection of its reunification plan. Another half-hearted attempt
flopped earlier this year with diplomats blaming the Greek Cypriots
for playing hard ball.

The EU would rather not get involved. It is likely to try to skirt
around sensitive issues in the talks but it remains to be seen whether
this will be possible, said Phedon Nicolaides of the European Institute
of Public Administration at Maastricht.

“I think everyone will play for time. The Commission will play for
time, the Turks will play for time. Everyone is hoping for a solution,
but there is nothing suggesting the U.N. are undertaking any new
initiative,” he said.

In a foretaste of what is to come, EU envoys spent much of September
haggling over how to formulate a response to Ankara’s refusal to
recognise Cyprus without a peace deal first.

And Cyprus has made clear it will fight hard on specific points,
such as Turkey lifting a financially damaging blockade on Cypriot
aircraft and vessels.

Ankara has failed to fully comply with an accord extending its customs
union to Cyprus, an issue which will be up for further review in
2006. Failing implementation, Cyprus will want its EU partners to
throw the book at Turkey.

Among its own options are a recourse to the European Court and to
report Turkey to the World Trade Organisation and GATT.

“Turkey fully understands that if talks are to get off to a positive
rhythmn then issues related to the customs union will be a priority,”
said John Palmer, director at the European Policy Centre in Brussels.

Analysts warn that the EU and Cyprus should be careful not to push
too hard a country that has had its pride pricked by criticism of
its human rights record and Europeans openly cautious of admitting
it into a largely Christian club.

The European Parliament, in a non-binding resolution, said on Wednesday
Turkey had to recognise the killing of Armenians under Ottoman rule
in 1915 as genocide before it could join.

“The difficulty for Cyprus is that Turkey is beginning to realise that
they can get on without being a full member of the EU. It is not EU
accession at all costs,” said Tim Ash, emerging markets strategist
at Bear Stearns in London.

“They will want to push Turkey for concessions on Cyprus, but not
too hard.”