EU talks on Turkey threatened by disputes
By Dan Bilefsky

International Herald Tribune

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2005

ISTANBUL Just days before European leaders gather to decide whether to begin
talks with Turkey about its entering the European Union, Austrian resistance
to Turkey and unresolved disputes over Armenia and Cyprus risk derailing
negotiations.

As representatives from EU governments prepared to meet in Brussels on
Thursday to decide on a framework for negotiations with Turkey, people close
to the talks said that Austria remained determined to push for a “privileged
partnership” with Turkey that falls short of full membership. They said this
opposition could result in an emergency meeting of foreign ministers on
Sunday to try to salvage negotiations.

“Of course, we are hoping that talks will begin Monday as scheduled, but
right now tempers are high, Austria refuses to budge and the outcome is not
at all a done deal,” said a British official close to the talks. Under EU
rules, a decision to start talks must be unanimous.

The European Parliament gave grudging approval to the opening of talks
Monday, but it also said that Turkey must recognize the killing of Armenians
under Ottoman rule in 1915 as genocide or risk being left out of the EU. The
nonbinding resolution is largely symbolic, but it was met with a frosty
response in Ankara, which insists there was no genocide and is adamant that
no further conditions be attached to Turkey’s EU bid.

The European Parliament, meeting in Strasbourg, also postponed a vote that
was to have taken place Wednesday, to approve Turkey’s extended customs
union with the EU. Ankara has agreed to extend its free trade agreement with
the EU to all 25 member states, including Cyprus. But it refuses to
recognize Cyprus formally and denies Cyprus access to its airfields and
ports. In a heated debate, members of Parliament said this was unacceptable.

“Turkey has to recognize members of a club if it wants to join it,” said Jan
Marinus Wiersma, vice president of the Parliament’s influential Socialist
group.

The Turkish Cypriot leader, Mehmet Ali Talat, warned Wednesday that forcing
Turkey to recognize Cyprus before the island’s division was resolved could
destroy prospects for peace and lead to civil war. Cyprus has been divided
since 1974 into a Greek-Cypriot controlled south and a Turkish-occupied
north.

In Ankara, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey publicly dismissed
the European Parliament’s statements. But people close to the prime minister
said he had been stung by them and had momentarily considered boycotting the
talks. Erdogan has reiterated forcefully over the past few weeks that he
would walk away from the talks if Turkey were offered anything less than
full membership.

Turkish analysts said Turkish public opinion was growing increasingly
frustrated with the EU’s stance and Erdogan could not afford a deal deemed
humiliating by many Turks. “Erdogan will not agree to talks if Turkey is
forced to make more sacrifices,” said Selcuk Gutalesi, a commentator for
Zaman, a conservative newspaper close to the government. Already, Turkey has
accepted unprecedented conditions to open EU negotiations, including an
open-ended halt to the movement of Turkish workers into the bloc.

While the EU’s invitation to Turkey last December was greeted with euphoria
in Turkey, the anti-Turkey sentiment expressed in recent votes on the EU
constitution in France and the Netherlands has prompted some Turkish
newspapers to splash headlines on their front pages accusing the EU of
double standards and calling on it to obey its own high moral laws. Turkish
officials say they fear the EU will try Monday to impose even tougher
conditions on Turkey’s EU entry to placate its own skeptical citizens.

The idea of accepting a poor, agrarian country into the bloc has been met
with deep resistance across the EU. Recent polls show a majority of French,
German and Austrian voters oppose admitting Turkey, and a majority of Danes
would rather see non-EU candidate, Ukraine, in the EU than an “Islamic
country” like Turkey.

That skepticism is likely to intensify in coming years, because leaders
viscerally opposed to Turkey’s entry are on the rise in two of the EU’s most
important countries, Germany and France. The Christian Democrat leader,
Angela Merkel, who may lead a German coalition government after finishing
ahead of the party in power in this month’s elections, favors a “privileged
partnership” for Turkey. In France, a likely presidential candidate, Nicolas
Sarkozy, also opposes Turkish membership.

Sinan Ulgen, a political analyst at Istanbul Economics, an Istanbul research
institution and consultancy, said Turkey was bracing itself for a long road
ahead. “The talks are likely to last at least 10 years, so this is only the
beginning.”