AZERBAIJAN TO WIN ‘IF WAR STARTS IN 10 YEARS’

AzerNews, Azerbaijan
Sept 29 2005

Azerbaijan will get victory if military action with Armenia resumes
in ten years, but stands no chance at winning now, says a survey held
among 24 American and European experts by the Assembly of American
Armenians. 40% of respondents said Azerbaijan will be victorious owing
to the increase in its oil revenues if the hostilities are launched
in 2015.

Only 4% predicted that Armenia will gain victory. The experts’
assessment seems plausible considering that by 2015, key economic
projects in the South Caucasus region will enter a full swing,
with Azerbaijan acting as a key player. Armenia, isolated from these
projects, will increasingly lag behind, at least in terms of economic
potential. Besides, amid Azerbaijan’s increasing military budget,
which will reach the entire state budget of Armenia in the coming
years, as mentioned by President Ilham Aliyev, a considerable outflow
of Armenians from their country is observed. Emigration threatens to
turn this country into a low-populated area over the next ten years.

The internal and external political situation in Azerbaijan and Armenia
is also expected to change over the mentioned period. Even if both
countries enter the road of democratic development simultaneously,
Azerbaijan, considering its extensive economic potential, will
be able to withstand possible political turmoil more easily than
poverty-stricken Armenia. The situation with the Armenia-Azerbaijan
Upper Garabagh conflict is likely to be very different than the
current one as well. The United States’ pressures on Russia over
the next ten years threaten to completely drive Moscow out of the
Commonwealth of Independent States in terms of its influence, while
Yerevan will lose military and political support of its powerful
ally. Considering the probability of Iran’s weakening in the face of
possible US military action and the increasing influence of Turkey
in light of its future admission to the European Union, Armenia will
face challenges over the next ten years. Time is therefore playing
more into the hands of Azerbaijan rather than Armenia. Nonetheless,
42% of the survey respondents said Armenia will get the upper hand
if war starts soon. 29% of the poll participants indicated that both
sides will lose in the confrontation, while the rest of them were
unable to give an unequivocal answer. The experts involved in the
survey also believe that it will be impossible to turn Upper Garabagh
into autonomy within Azerbaijan. 5 experts said Garabagh will gain
independence or be annexed to Armenia, while 15 respondents said its
status will remain uncertain for many years to come.