TOO SOON FOR TURKISH DELIGHT

The Economist, UK
Sept 29 2005

>>From The Economist Global Agenda

Formal talks are about to begin on Turkish membership of the European
Union. Within Turkey and outside it, there are questions about
the predominantly Muslim country’s readiness for Europe-but also
encouraging signs.

BARRING last-minute upsets, never to be ruled out as the diplomats
continued haggling this week, Turkey is on the brink of realising
its fondest national dream: on Monday October 3rd, formal talks will
begin on Turkish membership of a European Union at whose gate it has
been waiting for 40 years.

But as so often happens, the settlement of one question-should Turkey
step all the way into the EU’s ante-room?-has quickly given rise to
a host of others. People are already asking how long rapprochement
with the EU can be sustained, in the face of opposition in Europe to
Turkey-and in Turkey to Europe.

Scepticism over the Turks surfaced again this week in the European
Parliament. The legislators, while endorsing the start of talks with
the government in Ankara, balked at ratifying Turkey’s inclusion
in a customs protocol-on the grounds that the ships and aircraft of
Cyprus, an EU member, are still barred from Turkish ports. Dominique
de Villepin, the French prime minister, had earlier said that Turkey
must recognise Cyprus in order to join the EU. Nicolas Sarkozy,
a popular Gaullist who is well placed to win the French presidency
in 2007, opposes Turkish membership. So does Angela Merkel, who
is favourite to take Germany’s chancellorship following its recent
elections, which ended in a hung parliament. Overall, just 35% of
EU citizens support Turkish membership, according to a recent poll
by Eurobarometer. Europeans are queasy about the idea of taking in a
big Muslim member, and of hordes of Turkish job-seekers overwhelming
the EU’s current members.

But the other part of Turkey’s Euro-question is even harder: how
much resistance will there be among the Turks to the changes-legal,
economic, and above all cultural-that the EU is demanding?

For Turks who want a European future, there was a dollop of hope
last weekend, when brave historians managed to hold a conference in
Istanbul to discuss the fate of the Ottoman Armenians. It was the
first time Turkish pundits were permitted to challenge publicly the
official line, holding that the mass deportation of Armenians in
1915 did not amount to a conspiracy to kill them. As participants
read out letters between the “Young Turks” then ruling the empire,
a rapt audience was left with no doubt that hundreds of thousands of
Armenians were deliberately slain.

Planned originally for May, the Armenian forum was called off then
at the behest of Cemil Cicek, the justice minister. It was nearly
scuppered anew last week, when an Istanbul court used a technicality to
order its cancellation. This time Mr Cicek offered a way out-changing
the venue. And Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister, condemned
the court ruling: the first time an elected leader had so publicly
rebuked Turkey’s courts. It was also the first time that Mr Erdogan
had so clearly given a lead to public opinion instead of pandering
to populism. The establishment media fell in behind him, decrying
the noisy nationalists who pelted the conference delegates with eggs.

Cynics, who recall Mr Erdogan’s earlier moves to appease conservatives
by criminalising adultery, see his recent outburst of liberalism as a
last-ditch effort to clinch the October 3rd date. Be that as it may,
people close to the prime minister insist he has pinned his political
fortunes on further reforms, with or without the EU. “He can’t compete
on nationalism with the ultra-nationalists, so it’s in his interest
to keep on reforming,” says a western diplomat.

This may explain some other recent moves by Mr Erdogan: he dared
to admit, in a speech in the Kurdish stronghold of Diyarbakir, that
Turkey had erred in its dealings with the Kurds. These frank words
enraged nationalists, including some members of his own party. In
the country as a whole, nationalism has been bubbling: it has been
rising since June 2004, when the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party
(PKK) ended a five-year truce.

Chauvinism has surfaced in ugly ways. There have been attempted
lynchings of Kurdish civilians outside their native south-east
region. A recent poll shows the jingoistic Nationalist Action Party,
which failed to enter parliament in the 2002 elections, would gain
seats today.

As well as countering this dark mood, Mr Erdogan must cope with
foes in the army who fear that rapprochement with Europe will reduce
their power-and who see in Turkey’s internal conflicts a chance to
restore that influence. But Mr Erdogan has rebuffed army demands
to re-introduce a draconian anti-terror law. Solving the Kurdish
problem requires more democracy, not repression, he insists. He may
have to take further risks-for example by endorsing, despite army
opposition, a deal that would coax 5,000 PKK fighters from their
mountain strongholds, both in northern Iraq and within Turkey.

The coming year will be a big test of Mr Erdogan’s leadership.

Austria, a sceptic on Turkish entry, takes over the presidency of the
EU in January. The Austrians will doubtless promote their idea of a
“privileged partnership” between Turkey and Europe, instead of full
membership. Next year will also see the retirement of General Hilmi
Ozkok, a liberal chief of the general staff. His likely successor
is the land-forces commander, Yasar Buyukanit, a more old-fashioned
type of soldier. It is to keep such secularist hawks at bay that
Mr Erdogan has ignored some demands from his pious voters, such as
boosting religious education and easing curbs on the headscarf.

Another challenge, in his dealings both with sceptical Europeans and
his own voters, is to honour his claim to be giving Turkey its first
clean government. Charges of irregularity in the sale of shares in
the state refinery, Tupras-and also in a tender for the operation
of Istanbul’s Galata port-have weakened that claim. Unless he deals
with sleaze, Mr Erdogan may lose the trust of his own citizens and
his European partners. That would be a pity, when the prime minister
has risked so much for Turkey’s European future.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress