Deutsche Welle, Germany
Sept 30 2005

Opinion: EU-Turkey Project Hardly Realistic

Turkey and the EU: Two incompatible constellations?

Negotiations for Turkey’s possible entry to the European Union are
rocky even before they have started. Deutsche Welle’s Baha Güngör
believes that the EU-Turkey project doesn’t have a realistic chance.

Whether membership talks with Turkey can begin, as planned, on Monday
will be decided at the last minute. After ambassadors from the 25
member states failed to agree on a negotiating mandate at their
meeting on Thursday, EU foreign ministers now have to attend a
special session in Luxembourg on Sunday, since unanimous approval is
mandatory for the negotiations to start.

None of the 25 EU member states, not even Cyprus, wants to be the
spoilsport, which is why there will probably be a last minute
agreement to go ahead with the negotiations. But even if that’s the
case, the EU-Turkey project is hardly realistic.

Anyone who still thinks that one day in the distant future, after 10
or 15 years of negotiations, Turkey will become an EU member, is
either naive or has no clue about the country’s inner workings.
Turkey is a country on the periphery of Europe and therefore, a
country whose stability means much politically, economically, and in
terms of security, to Europe. Those who are sensible would want to
include Turkey in the continent’s integration process and to get
Ankara to pursue the values and visions of Europe.

Domestic politics at the center

Yet before accession negotiations started, many EU countries turned
the process into a self-serve buffet, looking to further their own
national interests. The election campaign in Germany, as well as the
French rejection of the EU constitution, which to a great deal was a
rejection of Turkey, reveal this clearly.

Demands too high, too soon

If the negotiations indeed start on Monday, it will be less a
question of whether they will ever successfully be brought to an end.
Rather, the question will be when they can be deemed to have failed,
or at least be interrupted for a few years. Grounds for failure won’t
be the EU’s regulations, the so-called “acquis communautaire.” A
lengthy transition period or permanent security clauses could be
agreed. Turkey is by far the largest and most densely populated
country that has ever attempted EU entry. In many economic areas, it
still lags far behind the EU average. But for all of these problems,
solutions could be found.

But the EU is making a big mistake by demanding the maximum from
Turkey, i.e. recognizing Cyprus or dealing with the Armenian
genocide, right at the start of the negotiations. They’re playing
their trump cards wrongly, creating resentment and hardening the
country that could, and also has to, address such topics in the
course of drawing closer to European values.

Euphoria long gone

Turks’ enthusiasm for Europe has, for the most part, disappeared. The
country’s nationalists are gaining in popularity and are reconquering
territory it had lost before. It’s no secret that in the next
elections, expected in two years, Turkish nationalism will experience
a rebirth. The feeling is growing among Turks that the numerous
reforms in the past and the strengthening of democratic forces in
Asia Minor since the signing of the 1963 Association Agreement with
the EU have all been for naught.

It is a shame that the EU will have clumsily dropped its chance to
achieve its goal of becoming a “global player” and its credibility in
fostering dialogue between cultures and religions. For Turkey, it’s a
shame that the country’s development into a democratic state will be
threatened with large setbacks. For when the EU and Turkey start
negotiations as planned, the participants will already be sapped of
their strength. They will be short of breath for the long road ahead
— unless a miracle happens.

Baha Güngör (jdk)

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