TURKEY, EU GAIN TIME TO PONDER

Kathimerini, Greece
Oct 5 2005

Ankara should push forward with democratic reforms regardless of its
European goal

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul is welcomed in Luxembourg
yesterday evening by his British counterpart Jack Straw after EU
member states decided to open accession talks with Ankara.

By Burak Bekdil – Kathimerini English Edition

Once again, Turkey and the European Union have put off their
deep-rooted problems – till the next act of the never-ending opera
buffe. Judging from the drama on stage, it’s hard to determine if
the Turks are becoming Europeans, or the Europeans becoming Turks.

Although parts of Turkey may now be cheering that their dreams have
come true, the truth may not warrant all the fanfare. It is not hard
to see that a great deal of china was broken in the runup to the
happy ending of the soap opera in Luxembourg.

No doubt there is progress, at least in “status.” So when things
go from worse to worst, it will be “back to square two,” instead of
“back to square one.”

While European ministers met on Sunday for the “last supper” before the
most critical date in Turkish-EU history, over 60,000 nationalist Turks
gathered in Ankara for what recalled Antonello Venditti’s famous 1970s
song, “Roma Capoccia” (Rome, the capital): Ankara, the capital! The
crowds sent a coarse message to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan:
Turkey is governed in Ankara, not Brussels.

The timing of the rally may look absurd, but it is not. Ironically,
Turkish public support for EU membership has dropped by 16 percentage
points to 57 percent since the EU agreed to open entry talks with
Turkey last December.

It’s time to be realistic. What can come out of a coupling if
everyone’s talking of divorce during the engagement ceremony? Not
much, perhaps.

Since EU declarations have effectively become part of the acquis
communautaire, so will the counter-declaration that calls for a
2006 review of whether Turkey has opened its ports and airports to
Cypriot airplanes and vessels. That practically means the talks can
be suspended in 2006.

If the dispute over ports is by some miracle resolved (if, for example,
the EU were to say that granting access to the Cypriot fleet does
not mean recognition; or if sanctions against Turkish Cypriots are
removed) then other problematic areas will surface in 2007, or in 2008.

When over 50 percent of Europeans oppose eventual Turkish membership,
the bitter truth is that “otherness” still divides Turkey and the
Old Continent. Of course, this static picture could be reversed in
the next decade. Still, Turkey must keep contingency plans in the
likely case that its EU bid fails in the future.

Every day that adds to the “otherness” will further reduce the Turks’
EU appetite, especially when Europeans play too much with explosive
issues like Armenian genocide claims. The European Parliament’s call
for Turkey to recognize the deaths of Ottoman Armenians as genocide
was a major brick in a wall that could divide Turkey and Europe for
good. The wise course for Turkey is to keep up democratic reforms as
if it will join the club one day, but keeping in mind that it may not,
or may even join an entirely different club than the one it sees today.

In Europe, a cradle-to-grave social welfare system has been created
that is not economically sustainable. Most countries are unable to
create economic growth internally because it is drained away by the
overburdened welfare system. Consequently, EU states must export at a
furious rate. This is difficult because the more efficient economies,
such as the USA and China, can out-compete them in most situations.

Thus EU states must cater to totalitarian regimes in order to export.

Hence the many deals with these states to secure exports. For example,
EU heavyweights intend to provide China with sophisticated weapons
in return for exports. A different course, but no more edifying,
is being adopted in Africa.

Some states are still struggling with the competing ideologies that
arose after World War I. It seems the socialist nationalists are
currently on the rise over the nationalist socialists.

Germany is teetering on the edge. Gerhard Schroeder, for example,
has, for most of his career, characterized himself as a Marxist. His
coalition partners, the Greens, were a party built around one woman,
Petra Kelly, until she accepted large infusions of cash from the East
Germans and Soviets. Joschka Fischer’s radical communist past is full
of controversy, such as his alleged links with Baader-Meinhof, Libyan
intelligence, and the murders of OPEC personnel in Vienna in the 1970s.

Then there is the professed pacifism of many Europeans. In fact, the
Old Continent is disarming and stepping off the world stage. Germany
is reducing its armed forces almost to the levels of the post-WWI
Versailles Treaty – federal aircraft levels are going down to 300 of
all types.

Even Britain, which says it will stay in Iraq until the end, is in
fact disarming itself to the extent that it will only be a symbolic
force. London plans to be able to support only one army brigade outside
Britain by 2015. Its navy will consist of only 25 small surface warfare
ships plus two carriers, and the carriers may not be built. The UK is
also drastically reducing its submarine fleet. Even now, Britain has
only one naval vessel in the Indian Ocean. All aircraft that flew from
current aircraft carriers have been withdrawn, and new ones will not
come in until 2015. Even British commanding officers admit the navy
is incapable of combat operations without the presence of US ships.

While the French military looks good, it is a hollow force. In the
first Iraqi war the French were teamed with the US 82nd airborne
division in their sweep into the western desert. The 82nd advanced
faster than did the French division and was attacking from blue bird
buses while the French rode in tanks and armored personnel carriers.

France is the only European presence in China’s neighborhood, with
some small naval vessels.

With limited military capabilities at a time of global need to tackle
asymmetrical threats, most of Europe will look like etatist governments
that stay in power by feeding an increasingly unsupportable welfare
system. That is going to be the general picture Turkey will face when
time has come for membership.

What, in these circumstances, must Turkey do? Seek a bizarre alliance
northward or eastward? Forget the EU entirely? Align itself with
an increasingly anti-European United States? These are not really
feasible or pleasant options. Turkey should stay on track, but with
a good contingency plan in mind. It needs to democratize and reform
for its own sake, with or without the EU.