TURKEY’S BIG TEST
EUPolitix.com, Belgium
Oct 4 2005
Ankara has waited over 40 years to begin entry talks with the EU,
and as it reaches the start line it will need stamina to overcome the
“rigorous” and uncharted terrain that lies ahead.
Turkey faces at least a decade of progress reports and intensive
negotiations as Brussels insists the outcome all hinges on Ankara’s
cooperation.
“The negotiations will be based on Turkey’s own merits and their
pace will depend on Turkey’s progress” in meeting the EU’s political
criteria, officials have stressed.
Whilst the underlying objective of talks is full membership, their
uniquely “open-ended” nature means no outcome can be guaranteed.
The Copenhagen criteria states that if Ankara fails to meet key
conditions it will be offered a partnership, “fully anchored in the
European structures through the strongest possible bond.”
There is also an emergency brake mechanism to suspend negotiations in
case of “a serious and persistent breach of the principles of liberty,
democracy, respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms.”
Policy issues in the Turkey talks have been broken down into 35 policy
areas or chapters – more than ever before – and the decisions on each
part will require unanimity.
The chapters cover a wide range of issues from food safety to foreign
policy and from free movement of workers to education and culture.
A troubled timeline
November 9 2005 – The European Commission issues its annual progress
report.
Expect tough talk on Turkey’s denial of Armenian genocide, human
rights progress and the criminal justice system.
Earlier this month, slammed the “deplorable provocation” of Turkish
judges for banning a meeting on the massacre of Armenians.
The commission warned Turkey its decision to ban an academic conference
would be noted in its annual situation report.
“The decision will be reflected in the regular report that the
commission will release on November 9,” a commission spokeswoman said.
“We strongly deplore this decision to stop the Turkish people from
discussing their history.”
January 1 2006 – Austria takes over EU presidency With an overtly
hostile Vienna steering negotiations, Ankara can expect a testing
six months.
Vienna’s insistence on less than full membership for Turkey, lead to
a troubled week of brinkmanship ahead of entry negotiations.
“We need an alternative that would ensure Turkey would remain bonded
as strongly as possible to the EU,” Austrian Chancellor, Wolfgang
Schussel insisted.
Opinion polls show 75 per cent of 15-24 year-olds opposed to Turkish
membership; rising to 82 per cent among people over 55. This is the
highest No rating in the EU.
Historical antagonism towards Turkish Ottoman imperialism combines
with modern day fears of incorporating a Muslim nation.
On current projections Turkey would be the biggest and poorest member
state if it entered the EU in ten years time.
The prospect of losing bargaining power to an impoverished Muslim
state troubles Vienna, (not to mention Paris and Berlin.)
March / April 2006 – Commission likely to end initial screening process
with proposals to begin negotiations in non-controversial areas such
as education and culture.
During 2006 – Cyprus likely to demand Turkey opens its ports to Cypriot
vessels before any specific negotiations on the 35 chapters can begin.
MEPs from across the political spectrum have backed up these demands
in recent weeks – pressing for a tight deadline on customs union – and
an ultimatum to recognise Nicosia by 2006, or the termination of talks.
“During the negotiations, recognition of Cyprus must take place,”
Socialist leader Martin Schultz told MEPs in Strasbourg last week.
“That cannot be at the end of the negotiations. It must take place
immediately, within the first one or two years. If there is no
recognition of Cyprus, the accession negotiations must be broken off.”
2007- 08 – The commission likely to propose the opening of the chapter
on the judiciary and fundamental rights.
Turkey will have to work hard to prove itself in these areas.
EU-harmonization reforms focus on a handful of key areas – Removing
regulations that contribute to impunity for torture, abolition
of the crime of spreading separatist propaganda, lifting of press
restrictions, the end of incommunicado detention and the right to
immediate legal counsel for State Security Court detainees.
Last year Amnesty International found, “Reports of torture and
ill-treatment in police detention and disproportionate use of force
against demonstrators continued to be matters of grave concern,
although the use of some torture methods appeared to diminish.”
2015 or later – If EU membership is offered to Turkey, France is
obliged to hold a referendum on the deal.
In September last year France’s then finance minister, Nicolas Sarkozy
convinced President Chirac to offer a referendum on Turkish entry.
Sarkozy does not disguise his anti-Turkey stance and pitted himself
against the French President to secure a referendum on the issue.
According to recent polls, only 20 per cent of French says Yes to
Turkey joining.
The even more sceptical Austria has also promised a referendum.