ANALYSIS-FRICTION IN AZERI RULING ELITE ON ELECTION EVE
By Lada Yevgrashina

Reuters
10/06/05 07:11 ET

BAKU, Oct 6 (Reuters) – Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev faces
the fiercest challenge to his power not from the opposition at
parliamentary elections in a month’s time but from warring factions
inside his own ruling elite, analysts say.

The Nov. 6 vote is under close international scrutiny after rigged
elections in ex-Soviet Georgia and Ukraine led to revolutions — a
scenario Aliyev’s opponents say could be repeated in the energy-rich
Caspian Sea state.

Though ruling officials deny a split, analysts say Aliyev, 43, is
caught in a power struggle between young modernisers in his team who
want a fair election and older hawks prepared to use force to put
down opposition protests after the vote.

“The ‘velvet’ revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia only happened
because there was a clear split in the ruling clan,” said analyst
Zardusht Alizade.

If Azerbaijan’s government snubs international pressure for a fair
vote, “it can expect a schism, and part of the ruling elite will join
the opposition camp,” he said.

Even Aliyev’s opposition challengers say they are less of a threat
than the enemies in his own camp.

“A real split can be observed inside Ilham Aliyev’s team,” Ali Kerimli,
one of two leaders of Azerbaijan’s main opposition bloc, told Reuters
in an interview.

“And more than that, the struggle between the factions is even more
bitter than that between the authorities and the opposition,” said
Kerimli, whose National Front, with four seats, is the only opposition
party in parliament.

Next month’s election has laid bare the infighting, with candidates
from rival factions running against each other for the same seat in
parliament on the ruling New Azerbaijan Party ticket, Kerimli said.

Aliyev, elected president in 2003 to replace his father Haydar,
who had ruled since Soviet times, is popular with voters and governs
almost unchallenged by the weak opposition.

SPLIT DISMISSED

All members of his administration say they are united in their loyalty
to the president.

“There is no split. All this talk of divisions is without foundation,”
said Siyavush Novruzov, deputy head of the ruling New Azerbaijan Party.

But analysts name Ramiz Mehtiyev, head of the presidential
administration who served for many years under Haydar Aliyev, as
the key figure in the faction that favours authoritarian methods to
preserve power.

On the other side is a group of younger politicians led by Azerbaijan’s
representative to the Council of Europe, Samed Seidov, who are pushing
for political reform, analysts say.

Local newspaper reports said Seidov and his allies — who include
some of Aliyev’s personal friends — complained this summer that the
old guard in the administration was frustrating reform.

Soon after, tax police raided a university run by Seidov, the
reports said.

Azerbaijan’s ruling elite is a patchwork of clans from the Aliyev
family’s native region of Nakhichevan, ethnic Azeris from neighbouring
Armenia and family friends and relatives.

Analysts say Aliyev shares the reformist leanings of his younger
aides but is not strong enough to take on the old guard.

Offshore oil and gas fields operated by BP are ramping up production,
promising Azerbaijan a windfall of billions of dollars over the next
20 years. Some observers say the clans are fighting for a share of
these spoils.

“The struggle inside the governing elite has intensified with the
election, but also as a result of the growing flow of financial
resources,” said analyst Leila Aliyeva.

Newspaper reports say the latest feud is between Economic Development
Minister Farhad Aliyev and Kemalatdin Haydarov, the customs chief
and an old favourite of the ruling family.

Farhad Aliyev has been stripped of some official powers and has
complained to reporters of a death threat, though he did not give
the source of the threat.

President Aliyev has promised that the Nov. 6 election will be fair
and says accusations of ballot-rigging and official repression are
empty opposition rhetoric.

Police at the weekend used truncheons to break up an opposition
rally in the centre of the capital, saying the protesters did not
have official permission. The opposition had turned down the offer
of a venue on the outskirts of Baku.

(Additional reporting by Rufat Abbassov)