AZERI COUP PLOTTER FEARS CIVIL WAR IF ELECTIONS RIGGED
Mahir Cavadov, Salzburg, Austria

Kavkaz-Tsentr news agency
Oct 8 2005

The exiled Azerbaijani politician, Mahir Cavadov, who was implicated
in the 1995 attempt to seize power, has said that he fears a civil
war may be possible if the forthcoming election is rigged. In the
interview, published on a Chechen rebel website, he said his original
interview with an Azerbaijani publication was distorted and that the
attack on his brother was provoked by former Azerbaijani President
Heydar Aliyev. Whereas the West has a vested interest in the election
being legal, Russia wants to keep the incumbent President Ilham Aliyev
in power, he says. Cavadov, who hopes to return home from Austria,
says he supports the exiled former speaker Rasul Quliyev and would
like to see him tried in an open court, but it will be difficult for
him to return as he would be in danger of his life. The following
is the text of the interview headlined “Mahir Cavadov: ‘My interview
was distorted'” carried on the Kavkaz-Tsentr news agency website on
8 October. Subheadings have been inserted editorially:

Rovsan Cavadov’s murder “provoked by former Azerbaijani leader”

The well-known Azerbaijani opposition MP Mahir Cavadov has approached
the Kavkaz-Tsentr news agency because he claims that the Azerbaijani
Day.az publication had distorted an interview he gave to journalists.

Kavkaz-Tsentr has received the full text of the original interview.

It will be recalled that Mahir Cavadov is the brother of the former
Azerbaijani Deputy Interior Minister Rovsan Cavadov who commanded
an OMON [special-purpose police detachment] regiment. Accused by
[former Azerbaijani President] Heydar Aliyev in 1995 of attempts to
seize power, Rovsan Cavadov was murdered, and Mahir fled to Austria
where he obtained political asylum. Mahir Cavadov himself believes
that the armed attack by the OMON regiment in 1995 was provoked by
Heydar Aliyev himself so as to take care of the real and powerful, as
he described it, force which was standing in the way of establishing
Aliyev’s regime of personal dictatorial power.

Here is the text of Mahir Cavadov’s letter as sent to the Kavkaz-Tsentr
editorial office:

>>From Mahir Cavadov, Salzburg, Austria, 28 September 2005. Mahir
Cavadov’s replies to questions put by Day.az in Azerbaijan, which
were forwarded by the journalist Zaur Rasulzada by e-mail.

Hello, Zaur bay [mode of address]! In accordance with our agreement,
I am sending you my replies to your nine questions. Respectfully yours,
Mahir Cavadov.

[Day.az agency] How do you assess the pre-election situation in
Azerbaijan?

Authorities preparing to rig the election

[Cavadov] The point about the current parliamentary election is that on
this occasion the administration cannot afford to behave in the coarse
and destructive way it did before when drawing up the documentation for
the registration of candidates. The fact is, the tactics are different,
but the plan of the authorities remains the same – they are preparing
to rig these elections, too. Whereas before the administration allowed
only its own people to participate in the elections, it now suits
their purpose that anyone who wants to can register. Why is this?

So it is easier for the administration to camouflage its candidates
under cover of “independent” and “opposition”, for example, [Milli
Maclis deputy] Asim Mollazada and the administration’s own people
grouped around him. But, in view of the fact that the authorities have
managed to keep the old electoral commission team, which rigged the
last elections, then the “independents” and “opposition” will enter
parliament not through the choice of the electorate, but because the
election was rigged.

But these crude actions are having a negative effect for the
administration, which to some extent is in the interests of the
opposition. Moreover, the current pre-election situation in Azerbaijan
is such that evident opponents of Russia and the West, who were not so
evident at the last elections, have been allowed to take part in them.

They are following these elections closely because whereas the
West now has a vested interest in these elections being legal, then
[Russian President Vladimir] Putin will strive to keep Ilham Aliyev
in power, which Iran also has a vested interest in. His value for
them lies in the fact that for many reasons he has not been able to
resolve Azerbaijan’s Karabakh problem which, in the opinion of Putin
and the Iranian leaders, based on the arguments of the Armenian side,
allegedly allows their states to avoid geopolitical processes which
they find undesirable.

These facts have been very clearly shown in Moldova and Georgia. In
these countries Putin’s Russia also took part in the elections, but
against their current leaders, because they, unlike Ilham Aliyev,
are really trying to restore their countries’ territorial integrity.

[Day.az] What are your predictions regarding the standoff between
the authorities and the opposition?

[Cavadov] Everyone knows that the previous elections in Azerbaijan
were rigged by the Aliyevs. The present opposition leaders lost these
elections to them. After every setback the opposition leaders promise
our people that at the next elections they will definitely get their
revenge. So these leaders have held out in the political arena until
the current elections which will be, as it were, the moment of truth
for them. The opposition leaders must win at this election, i.e. get
a decisive majority in parliament, otherwise the people will send
them packing whatever they say. They are obviously aware of this
fact. If they lose, they will resign, because these are the rules
of the political game adopted throughout the civilized world. It is
probable that these circumstances will force them to take radical
action against the authorities if the forthcoming election is rigged.

[Day.az] What is your position at these elections?

[Cavadov] I am on the side of the opposition. I will support them
with all my strength!

[Day.az] What do you think will be the West’s position on the results
of the elections?

[Cavadov] If the opposition leaders operate as in Georgia, Ukraine
and Kyrgyzstan and oppose election rigging, then I think the West
will support them. If not, then as in the past, the West will be
congratulating the authorities on their victory.

[Day.az] Do you plan to return to your Motherland?

[Cavadov] Yes!

[Day.az] What is your attitude to [the chairman of opposition
Democratic Party of Azerbaijan, ex-speaker in exile in the USA]
Rasul Quliyev?

Former speaker should be tried in open court

[Cavadov] I base my attitude to Rasul Quliyev by looking at the way
things are politically. In any event his struggle against the Aliyev
clan is part of the common struggle against tyranny. Therefore, I
will resolve the question of his involvement in the murder of Rovsan
Cavadov and the OMON affair not by way of mob law, but in an open
Azerbaijani court. And this will probably only be after the Aliyev
clan is removed from power. Although this is a very difficult task,
it is a possible one, so long as we – those who very much want this –
can sort out the relations between us!

I know what Quliyev is like and how he thinks. We all know that in
1993-96 the Aliyevs, using Quliyev against the opposition, were able to
disturb the political equilibrium in Azerbaijan in their own interests
– they removed [ex-President Abulfaz] Elcibay, [ex-Prime Minister]
Surat Huseynov, Rovsan Cavadov and many others from the political
arena. And when they were no longer there, Quliyev was no longer
of any use to them. Because he was weak in his strategic thinking,
at that time Quliyev failed to foresee the negative consequences of
his actions. After all, if these people had remained in the political
arena, the Aliyevs would not have been able to treat him in the way
they did. Quliyev was on his own against them.

At that time I tried to explain this to Quliyev, but he could
not understand it. Unfortunately, the Quliyev of 2005 is not very
different from the Quliyev of 1993-96. But still I support him, and
in this way I am trying to help restore the political equilibrium in
Azerbaijan. At the same time, we have to realize that the authorities
have created and deployed more than a hundred people like Quliyev in
the Azerbaijani political arena. But they, unlike the real Quliyev,
have been programmed in such a way that they consider the opposition
– and, therefore Quliyev himself – and not the authorities, to be
their opponents.

[Day.az] Do you think Quliyev will come back to take part in the
elections?

[Cavadov] I suspect that at so long as the Aliyevs are in power in
Azerbaijan it will be difficult for him to do this. But if in some way
he manages to get back to Azerbaijan, then it will be hard for him to
survive there, because the authorities do not intend to deal with him
in an official way. Ilham Aliyev has already issued an order to have
Quliyev killed if he sets foot on Azerbaijani territory, and then he
intends to accuse the OMON of this. In turn, I will try to help save
Quliyev because I have a vested political interest in his mission.

[Day.az] What do you think about Ilham Aliyev?

Ilham Aliyev’s “crimes”

[Cavadov] As you probably know, when Ilham Aliyev became president,
in the name of establishing civil peace in Azerbaijan, I acknowledged
his accession, and in return I proposed that he reject the criminal
past and disgraceful legacy of his father. However, he did not accept
such a proposal and when he started his direct rule the litany of all
these political murders and arrests of opposition members continued.

The continuation of his father’s policy automatically means he has
no interest in solving the Karabakh problem. His actions and talks
on this question can only be described as a fiction!

Thus, Ilham Aliyev has stooped to carrying out new crimes. Once a
person who has committed a crime remains unpunished, he will commit
further crimes in order to avoid punishment. My attitude to Ilham
Aliyev can be deduced by taking into account the above-mentioned
facts. I have no personal claims against him.

Fears of civil war

[Day.az] Do you think a revolution is possible in the country and
what will its consequences be for Azerbaijan?

[Cavadov] The state of our people and the biography of the people in
power in Azerbaijan is such that after the rigging of the current
parliamentary election, it is probable that there will not be
a revolution but a civil war! The consequences of such a war for
Azerbaijan as a state may be positive, but any civil war is accompanied
by human sacrifice, tragedy and destruction.