CONFIDENCE MEASURES, REFERENDUM NEEDED TO SOLVE KARABAKH DISPUTE: THINKTANK

Agence France Presse — English
October 11, 2005 Tuesday 4:23 PM GMT

An influential Western thinktank proposed a package of
confidence-building measures on Tuesday it said should lead to
a referendum on the status of the disputed Caucasus territory of
Nagorno-Karabakh.

The International Crisis Group (ICG) said there remained a risk of a
resumption of large-scale conflict 11 years after a 1994 ceasefire
ended a war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the territory that
claimed some 25,000 lives.

“So far, despite progress in the negotiations, the resumption of war
remains as likely as peace,” the Brussels-based group’s European Vice
President, Alain Deletroz, said in a statement introducing a 40-page
report on the dispute.

The measures it proposed include a withdrawal of Armenia-backed
Nagorno-Karabakh troops from districts surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh
and the renunciation by Azerbaijan of the possibility of using force
to take control of the territory.

The voluntary return of displaced persons would also be a crucial
element, as would investigations of war crimes, under the plan proposed
by the group.

In endorsing such measures, Armenia and Azerbaijan should also agree
the mechanism for an eventual referendum on the territory’s status,
in which only Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians and Azeris would participate,
the ICG said.

The risk of a return to armed conflict was symbolised, the thinktank
said, by a “line of contact” on which are stationed some 18,500
Nagorno-Karabakh soldiers, half of them estimated to be from Armenia,
and 30,000 to 45,000 Azerbaijani fighters.

“Nothing has been done on the ground to build confidence and trust,
demilitarise and demobilise, or resume trade and communications,”
the report read.

Agreement to hold a later referendum “is the crucial ingredient in
a viable peace process,” it continued.

Despite the failure to achieve a settlement, the ICG said both sides
had shown signs of flexibility in recent years that should eventually
enable a final status referendum.