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REGION
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AZERBAIJAN’S CRITICAL ELECTION
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Source: “Turkish Daily News” newspaper (Turkey) [October 11, 2005]
Author: Suat Kiniklioglu
On Nov. 6 Azerbaijan will conduct an important parliamentary
election. The election is critical as the stability of this strategic
country has become a concern to a number of regional and
extra-regional players. Azerbaijan occupies a strategic location in
the South Caucasus, its resource-providing role in the energy game has
regional implications and its perceived willingness to cooperate with
Euro-Atlantic structures has attracted an unprecedented level of
international attention.
Azerbaijan’s past electoral record is notorious and has been
criticized extensively by the international community. No wonder that
the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) is
planning to send 500 election observers to the upcoming election — a
substantial number of observers in light of the size and population of
Azerbaijan. There is no doubt that the Rose and Orange revolutions in
Georgia and Ukraine respectively have generated expectations among the
opposition of whether a similar evolution could take place in
Azerbaijan. International organizations, non-governmental
organizations (NGOs) and national governments also have expressed a
keen interest in the election. A total of 125 new members of
Parliament will be elected, and, although the Parliament does not play
a significant role in the Azerbaijani political system, the election
matters because it will provide a signal as to what direction the
country is heading. The presence of a meaningful opposition in the
Azerbaijani Parliament could be the beginning of a democratic process
that would help build domestic legitimacy and allow Azerbaijan to
develop its infant democracy.
I led a U.S. German Marshall Fund (GMF) delegation that visited
Azerbaijan last month and we heard repeatedly from Azerbaijani
officialdom, including President Heydar Aliyev as well as the
influential Ramiz Mehtiyev, that the presidential apparatus as well as
the governing Yeni Azerbaycan Partiyasэ (New Azerbaijan Party)
was doing everything to ensure a free and fair election. Indeed,
Aliyev’s decree of May 11, which stipulates a good number of measures
for a fair election, has been recognized as a constructive step, but
there are significant shortcomings in the implementation of these
measures.
Furthermore, recent events surrounding the opposition’s desire to
organize rallies in Baku and the surrounding regions do not bode well
for the election. The idea to use inking — commonly used in Turkish
elections — as a method to avoid multiple voting has been refused by
the authorities. Plans to hold exit polls are also meeting stiff
resistance. The OSCE’s attempts to establish a workable dialogue
between the government and the opposition have failed so far.
Azerbaijan is increasingly becoming under the spotlight as its
strategic location is critical to the United States, its abundant
energy resources constitute a significant alternative to volatile
Middle Eastern resources and its proactive role in the war on terror
has been appreciated in Washington. Azerbaijan’s oil and gas resources
are also important for Europe and will help the diversification of
Europe’s energy imports. The Azerbaijani economy is also showing
significant signs of recovery as the Aliyev years have provided
comparative stability. The coming years will see considerable
increases in oil and gas revenues to the Azerbaijani economy and Baku
appears to be cognizant of the need to diversify its economy.
Azerbaijan is a special country for Turkey as well. This is not only
due to the significance attached to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC)
pipeline and the Baku-Erzurum natural gas project, but also due to
cultural and linguistic factors that have made Baku a domestic
political factor in Turkey. Azerbaijan always occupies a special place
in the domestic scene. The events surrounding the expected Azerbaijani
recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC) in the
aftermath of the referendum on the Annan plan in April 2004 underlined
the intricate details of the Turkish-Azerbaijani relationship. The
impact of Azerbaijan’s flip-flopping on the issue has been remedied
with the `timely’ flight of a private Azerbaijani airline from Baku to
the KKTC in July. This trip was then reciprocated by a Turkish Cypriot
Airlines flight to Baku in August, which constituted the first-ever
direct flight by Turkish Cypriot Airlines to a foreign country. Many
speculated that the gesture from Baku was motivated by Aliyev’s desire
to enlist Turkey’s support in the upcoming parliamentary
election. Whatever the motivation, Baku’s gesture was duly registered
in Ankara and was demonstrated as such by subsequent visits by Justice
and Development Party (AKP) representatives to Baku.
What is at stake here is not only the procedural implementation of a
free and fair election in a post-Soviet country. What is really at
stake is the internal stability of a strategic country whose
opposition should be able to find a legitimate place in Azerbaijan’s
Parliament. Azerbaijan’s stability cannot be solidified with elections
that do not reflect the will of the Azerbaijani people. On the
contrary, Azerbaijan can only become a more stable country by allowing
its legitimate opposition to take part in its infant democracy. The
commonly but quietly used argument that Azerbaijan is not ready for
democracy yet is simply invalid. This is not only a view held by
political observers but also pronounced by a growing number of
investors who are concerned about the Azerbaijani opposition being
pushed onto an illegitimate plane, or, worse still, that political
Islamists may become the people’s opposition in the coming years.
The international community is watching with great interest what will
happen in November, and so are we here in Turkey. Nov. 6 should become
the beginning of a new and confident democratic process in
Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan deserves it and is ready for it.
“SAHAKASHVILI’S ACCESSION CREATED MORE PROBLEMS FOR AZERBAIJANIS IN GEORGIA”
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Source: “Zerkalo” newspaper (Azerbaijan) [October 10, 2005]
Author: F. Teymurkhanli
Businessman Fazil Aliev, anxious for his personal safety, had to ask
for political asylum in Azerbaijan.
Our newspaper had many publications on the problems of Azerbaijanis in
Georgia. There is an impression that the Georgian authorities either
miss or deliberately ignore the desperate situation of our compatriots
today. Moreover, infringement on the rights of Azerbaijanis, residing
in Georgia, is not of occasional nature; rather it is a massive
occurrence. The press conference, held by our compatriot Fazil Aliev
yesterday, was devoted to the problem of persecution of Azerbaijanis
by certain high-ranking Georgian officials.
Speaking about his past, F. Aliev noted that he used to take an active
part in national liberation movement in Georgia, being a follower of
deceased Zviad Gamsakhurdia. During the presidency of Zviad
Gamsakhurdia, F. Aliev held the position of the First Deputy Governor
of Kvemo Kartli. After Edward Shevarnadze’s accession, he moved to
Azerbaijan but soon returned to Georgia and launched a natural gas
business.
Former Governor of Kvemo Kartli, Levan Mamaladze had a strange dislike
for F. Aliev and demanded that he pass the company over to the
state. Naturally, F. Aliev would not give up his business that easily
and refused to obey. Despite numerous control commissions, the company
was not engaged in any illegal activity, so the local authorities
decided to apply other methods against F. Aliev.
In his opinion, the law-and-order bodies, jointly with the mafia,
started to persecute his family. F. Aliev got repeated threats about
kidnapping his children. He noted that in December 2000, a group of
masked persons attacked the school in Ponichali village, where his
three sons studied, and started shooting. Only due to the courage of
the teachers, who hid F. Aliev’s children, they were saved. He stated
that many children are still in the state of shock. `An incident
similar to Beslan events missed the attention of the Georgian
authorities. Georgian Ministry of Interior only issued a statement
that the Ministry did not launch any special operations that day”,
F. Aliev noted.
F. Aliev stated also that a while later a group of armed men assaulted
his office and beat his personnel. Besides, F. Aliev’s father had his
eye beaten out with the butt of the submachine-gun by
strangers. F. Aliev said he was arrested but the Azerbaijanis of
Ponichali village stood up for him in indignation, so the Ministry of
Interior had to release him.
F. Aliev notes that during Mikhail Sahakashvili’s presidency, the
Azerbaijanis residing in Georgia were so naïve as to suppose that
the new President of the country will take steps for solving their
problems. `I made a statement to General Prosecutor about the
lawlessness I was exposed to during Shevarnadze’s presidency. Criminal
proceedings were initiated, however no concrete steps were taken’,
F. Aliev stated.
With M. Sahakashvili’s accession, the situation not only failed to
improve but grew worse. Georgians of Armenian origin were appointed
for high positions, and they started a deliberate policy on deporting
Azerbaijanis. In February 2005, F. Aliev’s office was again assaulted
by strangers, whereas on the night of 3-4 June, 2005, armed and masked
men attacked F. Aliev’s house. According to our compatriot, they took
his three children hostage. However, the kids asked their father not
to leave the house since the armed men would surely kill him.
Shooting started between F. Aliev and the attackers, lasting over an
hour and a half. F. Aliev stated that he had a gun of Makarov brand
and two hunting rifles, for which he had a license. As stated by
F. Aliev, it is only after the relatives ran up for help that the
attackers had to leave the place. F. Aliev also noted that he
repeatedly stated to the General Prosecutor’s Office of Georgia that
the village executive authorities were engaged in corruption and drug
trafficking but no counter-measures were taken.
At the same time, F. Aliev stated that the Georgian human rights
activists and the ordinary citizens render considerable support to the
Azerbaijanis. “If not for their support, the number of Azerbaijanis in
Georgia would be considerably reduced’, F. Aliev emphasized. He noted
that a while ago he moved to Baku with his family and 3-4 days ago met
the Georgian Ambassador to Azerbaijan. He informed him about the
lawlessness in Kvemo Kartli. `The Ambassador was horrified over the
story. Yesterday (the day before yesterday – Ed.) I got the
information that a group of policemen, having ties with mafia, were
arrested. My meeting with the Ambassador must have helped”, F. Aliev
emphasized.
By the end of the press conference, he urged the Georgian authorities
to punish those responsible for his misfortunes. `While the current
regime is still preserved in Georgia, my family and I can’t feel
safe. Therefore, I am asking for political asylum in Azerbaijan’,
F. Aliev concluded.
KAZAKHSTAN EYES GEORGIA’S TRANSIT ROUTES
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Source: Civil.Ge online magazine (Georgia) [October 05, 2005]
Author:
Visiting Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev said on October 3 in
Tbilisi that Kazakhstan’s major interests in their relationship with
Georgia is the latter’s transit capabilities to transport Kazakh oil
and other freight to Europe. Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili
hailed relations with Kazakhstan as `free from any problems’ and
supported the Kazakh bid for OSCE Chairmanship.
The Kazakh President arrived in Georgian on October 2 for a two-day
official visit. His Georgian counterpart Mikheil Saakashvili hosted
Nazarbayev in Batumi, Adjara Autonomous Republic, where the Kazakh
leader toured the local port.
`Economic cooperation [with Georgia] is of major interest for
Kazakhstan. On the shores of the Caspian Sea we have built the largest
port in the Caspian Sea – Aktau – which is currently capable of
handling 15 million tons of oil [per year]… Another port of this
kind is being constructed, designed to obtain access from Kazakhstan
via the Caucasus and Black Sea to Europe. To become acquainted with
the [Black Sea port’s] capacity was very important in this regard and
I want to thank Mikheil Saakashvili and the Adjarian leadership for
giving us opportunity to see the capabilities [of the Batumi port],’
Nazarbayev said at a joint news conference with Saakashvili after
talks in Tbilisi.
`Secondly, the railway link between Baku [Azerbaijan] and the Black
Sea [in Batumi] is also very important and interesting for us in
respect to transportation of ferrous and non-ferrous metals and other
freight,’ the Kazakh President added.
While visiting Batumi, Nazarbayev noted that Kazakhstan also plans to
transport its oil through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline.
According to the Georgian Economy Ministry, Kazakhstan exported a
total of 3,300 tons of freight through the Georgian railway to the
west in 2004 (the latest data available). The total amount of cargo
transported through the Georgian railway, including those imported to
Kazakhstan via Georgia, totaled 38,000 tons in 2004.
Kazakhstan transported a total of 332,800 tons of oil through the
Georgian railway in 2004. Saakashvili said that this figure will
double in 2005. The Georgian port in Poti handled a total of 15,800
tons of Kazakh freight in 2004.
President Saakashvili said at the joint news conference in Tbilisi
that a new terminal and port in Kulevi, which is currently under
construction, will make it possible to increase these figures.
But bilateral trade between the two countries is low. According to the
Georgian Economy Ministry, bilateral trade decreased in the first half
of 2005. Total trade volume was up to USD 30 million in 2004, against
USD 8.7 million in the first half of 2005.
But officials say that recent investment projects being implemented by
the Kazakh side in Georgia can help increase these figures as well.
Kazakh BankTuranAlem (BTA), which holds assets of USD 5.5 billion, has
recently opened a branch office in Tbilisi and launched, in
cooperation with its local partner the Silk Road Group, the
implementation of a USD 100 million investment project, involving
reconstruction of the hotel Iveria, in downtown Tbilisi, into a
five-star hotel, as well as renovating all of Republic Square, where
the hotel is located. The two Presidents visited Republic Square on
October 3 and attended a presentation of this project.
Nazarbayev said at a news conference that Kazakhstan is also
interested in investing in Adjara’s tourism industry.
The two Presidents also discussed a possible supply of Kazakh gas to
Georgia, which desperately seeks an alternative gas supply source to
decrease its dependency on Russia in this regard. But in the event
that Georgia begins importing gas from Kazakhstan, Russia would still
play the role of transit country. Nazarbayev said the he thinks Russia
will not oppose this project.
Saakashvili said that all three states – Georgia, Russia and
Kazakhstan – will benefit from the gas supply from Kazakhstan. “I
think Russian and Georgian interests coincide here, as Russian
enterprises also operating in Georgia consume gas,’ Saakashvili said.
Both, Saakashvili and Nazarbayev spared no words to praise the reforms
going on in each others’ countries. The Georgian President said that
the Kazakh experience of economic reforms is an example for Georgia.
`We have the most pleasant experience of relations with Kazakhstan and
this has been observed through the past decade. Kazakhstan never
creates any problems for anyone… And Kazakhstan’s participation in
international processes is welcomed and we count on them [the Kazakh
side],’ Georgian President Saakashvili said at the joint news
conference, adding that Georgia supports Kazakhstan’s OSCE
Chairmanship bid in 2009.
Nazarbayev, who has led Kazakhstan since 1989 and who is accused by
opponents of suppressing any dissent, has, on several occassions,
expressed skepticism towards the regime changes which took place in
Georgia and Ukraine through peaceful revolutions.
But in Tbilisi he said: `Now I am convinced that there is a stable
situation in Georgia… I am now convinced that the Georgian
authorities are on the right path of [economic] reforms. I was
pleasantly surprised.’
During this visit, Georgian and Kazakh officials signed a number of
bilateral agreements, including one outlining economic cooperation
targets for 2006-2010.
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INT. STRUCTURES
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AZERBAIJAN FACES TROUBLE THROUGH TURKEY’S INITIATIVE
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Source: “Azg” newspaper (Armenia) [October 08, 2005]
Author: Tatul Hakobian
EU makes concessions to Turkey but not Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan has experience in blocking regional initiatives of European
and Euroatlantic structures. In September 2004, Baku did not tolerate
the presence of several Armenian officers on its territory, thus
causing NATO to cancel `Cooperative Best Effort’ annual military
operations, which were organized quite successfully in 2002 and 2003
by Georgia and Armenia. Currently, Azerbaijan has problems with EU and
its member state Cyprus.
EU member Latvia supports implementation of New European Neighborhood
Policy in the two Republics of the Transcaucasus – Armenia and
Georgia, without waiting for a third country to join.
Latvian President Vaira Vike-Freiberga, on her official visit to
Yerevan, emphasized at the joint press conference with President
Robert Kocharian yesterday that, `If by certain reasons negotiations
are not started simultaneously with all the countries of the region,
they should be started with those willing to join’.
Cyprus put a veto on discussing the activity under `Enlarged Europe:
New Neighbors’ program: starting from late July Azerbaijan has
established air communication with the Turkish section of the
unrecognized Cyprus. Since 1974, Turkey occupied about 40% of Cyprus,
however this did not impede EU to start membership negotiations with
Turkey on October 3. Meanwhile in Azerbaijan’s case, establishing only
air communication with the so-called Turkish Cyprus (Turkey is the
only country that recognized Turkish Cyprus), EU will not start
neighborhood negotiations with Baku until Baku-Nicosia problems are
not settled, as demanded by the Republic of Cyprus.
On October 5, EU Commissioner for Foreign Relations Benita Ferrero
Valdner warned Azerbaijan that if its relations with Cyprus are not
settled, the European Commission will start negotiations with Armenia
and Georgia. `I made it clear to the Azerbaijanis that if they don’t
change their attitude and don’t find a solution, we will continue
cooperation with Armenia and Georgia. We hope the Azerbaijanis will
find a solution within a week or two, since I cannot keep Armenia and
Georgia waiting’, Ferrero Valdner stated.
Most probably, it is through Turkey’s friendly recommendation that
Baku has established air communication and economic cooperation with
the Turkish section of Cyprus. Considering the Karabagh conflict as
well, Ankara has not lifted the Armenian blockade for over 11
years. So, if Turkey makes the sacrifice of blockading Azerbaijan’s
enemy Armenia and thus getting the pressure of US and Europe, why
shouldn’t Ankara demand that Azerbaijan assist her in the issue of
Northern Cyprus. Last year in Ankara, President Ilham Aliev implied
that Baku might recognize Lefkosha. Probably, Azerbaijan later changed
its intention, understanding that it might have serious consequences.
Receiving Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Baku in late June, Aliev promised,
`Azerbaijan is ready to do its utmost for withdrawing Northern Cyprus
from isolation’. Azerbaijani President said he discussed the issue of
removing the isolation of Northern Cyprus with Turkish Prime
Minister. Azerbaijani newspapers and polit! ical circles discussed
the warning by EU. In particular, one of the officials of the Foreign
Ministry Tayir Taghizade stated to `Zerkalo’ newspaper that
Baku-Lefkosha flights have a commercial nature and are in no way
related to Azerbaijani foreign policy.
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