WESTERN GROUP CALLS FOR ‘SELF-DETERMINATION REFERENDUM’ IN KARABAKH
By Emil Danielyan

Armenia Liberty
Radio Liberty, Czech Rep
Oct 11 2005

An international think-tank led by retired Western politicians called
on Tuesday for a resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict that
would allow the disputed region’s population to determine its status
at an internationally supervised referendum.

The International Crisis Group (ICG), a Brussels-based institution
specializing in conflict resolution around the world, also warned of
“ominous signs that time for a peace agreement is running out.”

“Nagorno-Karabakh’s status should ultimately be determined by an
internationally sanctioned referendum with the exclusive participation
of Karabakh Armenians and Azeris,” the ICG said in a report on the
Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. The group stressed that such a vote
should take place after the liberation of all Armenian-occupied
Azerbaijani territories around Karabakh and the restoration of
cross-border commerce and transport communication between the
conflicting parties.

The report’s recommendations are mostly in line with a peace formula
that has reportedly been discussed by Armenia and Azerbaijan for the
past year. The two sides appear to have made considerable progress
toward a compromise agreement which international mediators say might
be sealed at the end of this year or the beginning of next.

“There has been tentative discussion of a possible plebiscite to
determine the entity’s final status, but with none of the necessary
detail agreed as to who would vote on what, when and how, nor any
agreement as to what other settlement conditions would create the
context for such a vote,” reads the report.

The report says the “self-determination referendum” should be held only
after the return of Karabakh’s Azerbaijani minority displaced by the
conflict and only if Karabakh is deemed to have met “international
preconditions for statehood, including the protection of minority
rights.”

Another ICG condition for the referendum is “incremental withdrawal of
Nagorno-Karabakh forces backed by Armenia from all occupied territories
around Nagorno-Karabakh.” That, according to the group, should include
the Lachin district that serves as the shortest overland link between
the disputed territory and Armenia proper. Its report says the vital
corridor would be controlled by international peacekeepers after
Armenian withdrawal.

The leaderships of Armenia and the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh
Republic have repeatedly stated that Lachin’s return to Azerbaijan
or international supervision is non-negotiable. Armenian officials
told RFE/RL earlier that the peace accord discussed by the parties
envisages continued Armenian control over the area.

The ICG also called on Azerbaijan to renounce use of force in the
conflict and “resume direct contact with the de facto Nagorno-Karabakh
authorities.” Azerbaijani leaders regularly threaten to win back
Karabakh by force. President Ilham Aliev has pledged to embark on
a massive military build-up which he hopes will force the Armenian
into making serious concessions.

Azerbaijan’s continuing bellicose rhetoric was denounced on Tuesday
by Armenian Defense Minister Serzh Sarkisian. “Oil dollars seem to
have gotten some Azerbaijani leaders carried away and dizzy, and
they have started signing old songs,” Sarkisian said in a speech at
a military base in Yerevan. “The existing situation can be compared
to the situation of the early 1990s when Azerbaijan’s leaders were
promising to quickly resolve the Karabakh conflict by force.”

The ICG similarly warned of the persisting danger of renewed
fighting in Karabakh. “So far, despite progress in the negotiations,
the resumption of war remains as likely as peace,” the group’s
vice-president for Europe, Alain Deletroz, said in a separate
statement.