ARMENIANS SHOULD SQUEEZE CONCESSIONS OUT OF TURKEY DURING EU NEGOTIATIONS
By Harut Sassounian; Publisher, The California Courier
AZG Armenian Daily #185
14/10/2005
Turkey-EU
Turkey finally embarked on a journey that it had been anxiously
awaiting for more than 40 years. The long and arduous negotiations
for Turkey’s membership in the European Union officially started last
week and are expected to last 10 or more years.
Armenians are of two minds over the benefits of Turkey joining
the EU. Some of them are of the opinion that Armenia is better
off if its old nemesis is kept under check by EU’s strict code of
conduct. Armenians in this camp believe that a “civilized Turkey”
is more apt to recognize the Armenian Genocide, lift its blockade of
Armenia, and conduct peaceful relations with its neighbors.
Other Armenians believe that Turkey is simply going through the
motions of transforming itself, without having any honest intentions
of doing so.
Besides, these Armenians believe that there are no guarantees that
“an enlightened Turkey” would be more inclined to recognize the
Genocide. Turkey could well become an EU member, and like Britain,
still refuse to acknowledge the Armenian Genocide. Even worse,
should Turkey not change its denialist policy after joining the EU,
Armenians would be deprived of whatever clout they may have had
in creating obstacles for its EU membership. Furthermore, Turkey
would have by then the largest population among the EU countries,
and thus be entitled to have the largest number of votes in various
EU councils. Turkey could thus block pro-Armenian initiatives and
help pass pro-Turkish and pro-Azeri resolutions in the EU.
Therefore, the time to get any possible concessions out of Turkey is
now, before it joins the EU.
Whether or not Turkey eventually becomes an EU member in 10 or 15
years from now is very difficult to determine in advance. To begin
with, no one really knows with any degree of certainty the domestic
and foreign developments that would shape Turkey’s decisions and as
well as the attitudes of Europeans about Turkey years from now. Here
are some of the factors that could influence the outcome of Turkey’s
EU membership negotiations:
1) The social, economic and political conditions within Turkey that
would impact its government’s desire to make the extensive changes
required by the EU negotiations framework;
2) The stability of neighboring Iraq and the repercussions on
Turkey arising from Iraqi and Turkish Kurds pursuing their national
aspirations;
3) The social, economic and political conditions within various EU
member states, particularly the attitude of their citizens towards the
influx of more foreign workers at a time when they may be suffering
from high unemployment and social unrest;
4) The state of negotiations on the settlement of the Cyprus problem;
5) The clout of the US government in terms of its ability and
willingness to influence the EU on Turkey’s membership;
6) Whether or not more terrorist acts are committed by radical Islamist
groups, particularly in Western Europe;
7) The results of the referendums that are to be held in several
European countries on whether to allow Turkey to join the EU; and
8) The status of Armenian-Turkish relations that are partly linked
to the outcome of the negotiations on the Karabakh conflict.
While Turkey will most probably have to lift its blockade of Armenia,
since “the EU-Turkey negotiation framework” document requires that it
unequivocally commit to “good neighborly relations,” the recognition of
the Armenian Genocide by Turkey is not certain at all. Aside from the
repeated non-binding resolutions adopted by the European Parliament
demanding Turkey’ s recognition of the Armenian Genocide, the EU
itself has not made such acknowledgment a part of its requirements
for membership.
It would be naïve, if Armenians believe that they could block
Turkey’s EU membership because of its non-recognition of the
Armenian Genocide. If several years from now, Turkey successfully
fulfills all EU requirements and settles the conflict in Cyprus, its
EU membership would be just about guaranteed. Armenians should not
expect European countries to rise to their defense, at the expense
of their own self-interests. The Europeans would care about Armenian
issues only when they happen to coincide with or serve their own
national interests.
To be able to squeeze the maximum concessions out of Turkey, Armenia
and the Diaspora would need to make common cause with the majority of
Europeans who are strongly opposed to Turkey’s EU membership. Turkish
officials must realize that unless they sit down at the negotiating
table with Armenians and try to accommodate some of their grievances,
Armenians would work tirelessly for the next 10 or more years to
ensure that Turkey’s membership is delayed indefinitely. It is not in
Armenians’ interest to block Turkey’s EU membership, but to drag it
out as long as possible. The longer the negotiations take, the more
concessions can be squeezed out of Turkey. This is the logic behind
the positions of Cyprus and Greece. Despite the fact that they could
have vetoed the start of Turkey’s EU talks, Cyprus and Greece allowed
the talks to go forward with the aim of extracting concessions from
Turkey during the negotiating process. Had they used their veto last
week, they would have deprived themselves of the opportunity to get
any concessions from Turkey.
The interest of Armenians requires that, on the EU issue, Turkey remain
a bridesmaid, as long as it refuses to pay the dowry to become a bride!
–Boundary_(ID_AtGDPK30A5oGa3ASpByHbA)–