RUSSIA, ARMENIA IN JOINT BID TO STAVE OFF ANOTHER EX-SOVIET REVOLUTION
By Emil Danielyan

Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
The Jamestown Foundation
Oct 17 2005

The leaderships of Russia and Armenia have underscored their persisting
concerns about the spread of anti-government uprisings across the
former Soviet Union by holding a joint exercise of their special police
forces. The extraordinary move comes less than two months before a
tense constitutional referendum in Armenia that opposition groups will
likely use for another attempt to topple President Robert Kocharian.

The Armenian opposition, buoyed by the spectacular success of the
revolution in Georgia, already tried to do that in the spring of
2004. But its three-month campaign of nationwide street protests
fizzled out due to a lack of popular support and unprecedented
repression unleashed by Kocharian’s regime.

The police exercises took place near the southern Russian city of
Krasnodar from September 24 through October 12. As many as 1,500
officers (the bulk of them presumably Russians) reportedly practiced
quelling an anti-government demonstration in the presence of top
law-enforcement officials from the two states, including Russian
Interior Minister Rashid Nurgaliev and the chief of Armenia’s Police
Service, Hayk Haruitunian. The final and most important episode of the
exercises involved about 50 imaginary protesters seizing a government
building and taking hostages after demanding payment of their back
wages and the authorities’ resignation. Special police then burst
into the building and liberated the “hostages.”

According to Armenian press reports, participants in the exercises
simulated several violent methods of crowd dispersal dating back
to Soviet times. PanArmenian.net, a pro-government online news
service, reported that they also tested their shooting skills and
familiarized themselves with “rules for the use of firearms” and
“technical equipment” against those who challenge the authorities in
Moscow and Yerevan. “Russian and Armenian special forces are ready
to fulfill the tasks they are set,” Nurgaliev declared afterwards.

The presence of Russia’s and Armenia’s top policemen at the
drills attests to the great importance attached to them by the
two governments. They both have watched with alarm the wave of
ex-Soviet revolutions that set precedents for regime change through
the expression of popular will. Armenia is widely regarded as one of
the potential venues for the next such revolution, a prospect that
sets pulses racing in Moscow, Yerevan, and a number of other former
Soviet capitals.

“The Russian authorities have been having nervous breakdowns because
of the revolutions that took place in post-Soviet countries,” the
Yerevan daily Haykakan Zhamanak commented on October 12. “They are
holding joint exercises with Armenian special forces because there
has already been an attempt at revolution in Armenia and Russia fears
that it could be repeated.”

Apart from helping their Armenian counterparts, Russian security forces
also have something to learn from them. On the night of April 12-13,
2004, Armenian special police backed by interior troops brutally
broke up a peaceful demonstration near the presidential palace in
Yerevan that marked the climax of the last opposition offensive
against Kocharian. Scores of protesters were beaten up and arrested
by security forces armed with truncheons, stun grenades, and even
electric-shock equipment. “The excessive use of police force” was
strongly condemned at the time by Human Rights Watch.

The obvious purpose of the government-sanctioned violence was not
only to disperse the crowd of less than 3,000 people but also to
discourage as many Armenians as possible from attending further
anti-Kocharian rallies. Security forces also severely beat up
virtually all photojournalists that were present at the scene. One
of those journalists, who required hospitalization, insists that
Hovannes Varian, a police general who led the operation, personally
confiscated his camera before ordering subordinates to attack him.

Incidentally, Varian was among the Armenian law-enforcement officials
who monitored the Krasnodar exercises. Also in attendance was Ashot
Gizirian, the equally notorious head of a feared police unit that
is supposed to combat organized crime and terrorism, rather than
opposition activity.

The brutish police chiefs may again be called into action next month.

Armenians will go to the polls on November 27 to vote on a package
of constitutional amendments drafted by Kocharian and his governing
coalition. The draft amendments, endorsed by Europe and the United
States, are aimed at curtailing the sweeping constitutional powers
enjoyed by the Armenian president. But Armenia’s main opposition
forces dismiss the proposed changes as cosmetic and have pledged to
scuttle their passage. Opposition leaders have repeatedly pledged to
turn the referendum into a vote of no confidence in Kocharian.

“November 27 will be our day,” the most radical of them, Aram
Sarkisian, said in a recent newspaper interview.

With the Armenian public remaining apathetic about constitutional
reform, the ruling regime is widely expected to at least try to
falsify the referendum results. However, the kind of crude vote
rigging to which the authorities resorted in the last presidential and
parliamentary elections could give the opposition a powerful weapon
to spark a mass pro-democracy movement. Kocharian and his entourage
cannot fail to understand this. The Krasnodar exercises illustrate
the extent of their worries.

Aravot, another paper critical of the Armenian leadership, reported on
October 12 that the Armenian police are holding negotiations with the
Interior Ministry of Belarus over the purchase of anti-riot equipment
such as clubs, tear gas, razor wire, and even rubber bullets.

(Haykakan Zhamanak, October 12; Aravot, October 12;
, October 11; Human Rights Watch statement, April
17, 2004)