KOCHARYAN MAKES A MOVE
by Aleksandr Iskandyaryan

Source: Rossiiskie Vesti, No. 9, March 9-15, p. 6

Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
March 13, 2006 Monday

THE SITUATION ABOUT NAGORNY KARABAKH IS ESCALATING; Armenia will
de-jure acknowledge the independence of Nagorny Karabakh, if
negotiations with Azerbaijan on settling this problem reach an impasse.

Armenia will do what Russia should have done with Abkhazia and South
Ossetia long ago, it will de-jure acknowledge the independence of
Nagorny Karabakh, if negotiations with Azerbaijan on settling this
problem reach an impasse. It was said by Armenian President Robert
Kocharyan, in an interview to the first channel of Armenian television,
“Though the meeting in Rambuie has brought no results, the negotiations
are going on and there is a chance that they will be successful. If
the negotiations reach an impasse for one or another reason, it will
be the worst scenario.”

It is clear about what scenario they are speaking. Yerevan and
Stepanakert are afraid, that the aggravation of the situation about
Iran will in some way influence the Karabakh problem, the decision
of which has long been in a deadlock. The attempts to make terms in
different international formats, to “lead up” in Russia or in the
West turn out to be sterile. But the common and disturbing course
of events in the South Caucasus, which according to the analysts,
makes Moscow (and not only it) carry out pragmatic policy of equal
distance. And this in its turn begins to encourage Yerevan to force
events in an extraordinary way, to bind all the unsettled conflicts
in the South Caucasus in one knot and by this tie and prevent possible
actions of Moscow.

The time when Robert Kocharyan made his statement is not incidental.

It was delivered right after the official visit of President Vladimir
Putin to Baku, where he opened the year of Russia in Azerbaijan. The
visit proved to be not only a success for the parties, but it allegedly
put the policy of Moscow into definite limits, since in the year of
Russia it will be very awkward to put excessive pressure on Azerbaijan
for one or another reason.

The second reason of activating Robert Kocharyan is considered to be
the early start of electioneering in Armenia. That’s why there is the
desire of official Yerevan to seize the initiative from opposition
in deploying different scenarios of Karabakh’s fix-up.

The situation is aggravated by the fact that Karabakh has turned into a
national idea for conflicting parties. Armenia tries to keep Karabakh
outside the jurisdiction zone of Azerbaijan, and Azerbaijan to return
its territories. That’s why very few believe, that the co-chairmen of
the OSCE group would manage to propose a mutually acceptable decision
for the parties.