PanARMENIAN.Net

Prednestrovians Try to Win Over Armenians to Their Side

In Tiraspol they hope that Stepanakert and Yerevan
will denounce Kiev’s blockade of Prednestrovian
Republic.

10.03.2006 GMT+04:00

Transport blockade of the unrecognized Prednestrovian
Republic continues. On the 3rd of March the government
of Ukraine announced the introduction of new customs
regime for the transportation of goods across
Prednestrovian – Ukrainian border. From now on, the
Ukrainian party demands Moldavian customs’
registration of transported goods. The situation,
which may turn to a humanitarian disaster, worries
also citizens of other unrecognized republics,
including Nagorno-Karabakh.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Experience shows that tendencies
observed in any of the unrecognized republics very
often find their continuation in conflicts with the
involvement of other newly created states,
unrecognized by the world community. This is why
Abkhazians and Osetians are so much alarmed at the
developments in Prednestrovie. Stepanakert also
carefully observes the situation whereas in their case
the people of Karabakh can hardly imagine a situation
similar to the one in Prednestrovie. Ukrainians
deliberately block the republic, considering
Prednestrovians as their compatriots. (Almost half of
the population of Prednestrovie are ethnic Ukrainians,
having even Ukrainian passports.) If the same
situation occurred in Karabakh, it would look
approximately like this: Armenia would agree with
Azerbaijan and would blockade Nagorno-Karabakh.
Fortunately such a scenario is out of question.

However, in the case with Prednestrovie everything
cannot be painted in two colors – black and white.
Things are much more difficult here. There is no doubt
that the decision of Kiev is dictated not only by the
aspiration for normalizing relations with Kishinev but
also by signals from the West. I even suppose that it
is sensible to connect the decision with Vladimir
Putin’s announcement about the universality of Kosovo
scheme. The President of Russia actually hinted at the
idea that in case of recognition of Kosovo’s
independence by the West Moscow will consider the
issue of recognizing all the established states that
proclaimed sovereignty after the collapse of USSR.
Analysts commenting on this announcement suppose that
the Kremlin is inclined to begin with Prednestrovian
Republic. In this context the last step of President
Yushenko can be explained by the signals from the West
as well as the wish of Kiev to show Russians that they
have no less resources to influence the situation in
Prednestrovie than Moscow has. In any case the
conflict is not between Slavics of Prednetrovie and
Ukraine but between official Kiev and Moscow.

Presidents Bagabpsh and Cocoyta have already toughly
criticized Ukraine’s politics. In contrast to
Abkhazians and Ostetians, Karabakh leaders still
refrain from making official announcements. Only some
independent political scientists have made public
statements on the falseness of Yushenko’s actions.
President of Karabakh Arkady Ghukasyan and the
Ministry of Foreign Affairs have preferred the
wait-and-see attitude. The same can be said about
Armenian foreign ministry, which has always tried to
stay far away from discussing such issues.

Meanwhile, Tiraspol is doing everything possible to
involve Armenians in the discussion of the conflict.
On the 6th of March the head of Armenian community of
Prednestrovie Nikolay Sarkisyants became a member of
the so-called `Anti-blockade Coordination Council’.
The Armenian community of Prednestrovie has also
appealed to the foreign ministries of Armenia and
Nagorno Karabakh for denouncing actions of official
Kiev. According to Nikolay Sarkisyants `Armenians of
Prednestrovie are going to do everything possible for
the consolidation of efforts for stopping the blockade
of the republic’. `Armenians established in
Prednestrovie more than 200 years ago. Armenians,
Moldavians, Ukrainians and Russians are like one
family here. Such kind of actions are aimed at
splitting us’, Sarkisyants says.

Tiraspol’s attempts to win over Stepanakert and
Yerevan to their side can be understood as easily as
the reasons making Armenian and Karabakh leaders
refrain from public statements on the situation in
Prednestrovie. The wish to avoid troubles is quite
natural if we take into account that at times problems
occur between Armenia and Ukraine. As for
Prednestrovians, they have much more powerful
defenders than Armenians. Within the coming few months
Moscow’s behavior can become determinant for the
future of Prednestrovian Republic.

This situation of course attracts the attention of
Armenians because it clearly demonstrates the
principality and consistency of those who are against
the application of Kosovo model with other
unrecognized republics of post-Soviet. territory. If
Moscow finds the courage to reply as tough as possible
to such actions and makes a decision on recognizing
the independence of Prednestrovie, very interesting
perspectives may open up for Karabakh. Political
scientists find such a turn of events quite possible.
If such a thing happens there will be an important
precedent, which will be very useful for Karabakh.
«PanARMENIAN.Net» analytical department