UN sanctions against Iran could affect S. Caucasus

RIA Novosti, Russia
March 10 2006

UN sanctions against Iran could affect S. Caucasus
14:23 | 10/ 03/ 2006

YEREVAN, March 10 (RIA Novosti) – International sanctions that could
be imposed against Iran over its controversial nuclear research
program would increase tensions in the neighboring South Caucasus
region, an Armenian expert said Friday.

“Possible sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council against Iran
will further aggravate tension in the South Caucasus region … which
is involved in ambitious economic projects with Iran,” said Stepan
Grigoryan, head of an Armenian think-tank on globalization and
regional cooperation.

The South Caucasus region includes the former Soviet republics of
Armenia and Azerbaijan, which border on Iran, and Georgia. As UN
member states, the three republics will be obliged to follow the
decisions of the UN Security Council, Grigoryan said.

If the UN Security Council does opt for sanctions, they will most
likely be economic and diplomatic, which will entail a ban on visas
for senior officials of the Islamic Republic and a resolution to
freeze their bank accounts, he said.

Iran risks coming under international sanctions after it resumed
uranium enrichment – a process that can be used to generate energy
and create weapons-grade material – after a two-year hiatus, arousing
particular concerns in the West and in neighboring Israel.

However, Grigoryan said, the worst possible scenario would be if the
United States and its supporters in the UN decide to form an
anti-Iranian coalition, similar to the one against Iraq, and start a
unilateral campaign, including a military operation.

“This will require political decisions from the leaderships of
Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia on whether they will join the
U.S.-led coalition, and provide air space or their territories” for
the operation, Grigoryan said.

He said the leaders of the three republics would inevitably have
different answers to these questions, which “is highly likely to
result in harsher confrontation between the countries of the region.”