AZERBAIJAN: SLIM CHANCE FOR PEACE?
Fariz Ismailzade
A EurasiaNet Commentary
EurasiaNet, NY
March 16 2006
Both Azerbaijan and Armenia could not hide their disappointment
following the failure of a presidential summit in France in February
to achieve a breakthrough in Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks. With
discussions stalled and cease-fire violations by both sides
increasingly frequent, Azerbaijan has stepped up threats to use
military force to regain the territory.
Following his February 10-11 summit with Armenian President Robert
Kocharian, Azerbaijani chief executive Ilham Aliyev resorted to
bellicose rhetoric, telling local journalists that “[i]t is time
that Azerbaijan re-considers the negotiation course and views other
options.” He also paid a visit to the cease-fire line in the Ter-Ter
region, wearing a military uniform while touring the trenches. The
uniform was taken as a sign of support for Azerbaijanis’ increasingly
widespread pro-military sentiments.
President Kocharian responded in kind, declaring that “if the peace
process does not produce any results, Armenia will recognize the
independence of Nagorno-Karabakh,” various media outlets reported.
Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian, meanwhile, stated that
Azerbaijan’s threats will not change Armenia’s position on Karabakh.
“Azerbaijan will not dare to start a war,” Oskanian told Armenia’s
Shant TV recently. “Azerbaijan is not ready for a war.”
Even so, it appears that Azerbaijan is embarking on a military
build-up. On March 16, Aliyev called for Azerbaijan’s military budget
within the next few years to equal “the total budget of Armenia,”
the Russian news agency ITAR-TASS reported.
Some Azerbaijani media outlets, however, argue that both sides are
posturing to gain an advantage at the negotiation table. “Armenia and
Azerbaijan’s military officials continue to shoot militaristic threats
into the air,” commented Baku’s pro-opposition Russian-language
daily Zerkalo on March 11. For all the militant rhetoric, Baku’s
desire to negotiate does not appear at an end. At a conference of
the Azerbaijani Diaspora in Baku on March 16, Aliyev affirmed that
Azerbaijan would continue with Karabakh peace talks “as long as we
feel that there is a chance for a political settlement . .
. But if we see that the process turns into a simulation, we shall
quit [them],” ITAR-TASS reported. Aliyev went on to add that granting
Nagorno-Karabakh autonomous status within the confines of Azerbaijan
is “possible,” but stressed that “we shall never agree to the loss
of our territories.”
International mediators appear to be increasingly concerned that time
is running out for a peaceful settlement of the 18-year-conflict. On
March 7, the Russian, French and American co-chairs of the Organization
for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s Minsk Group, which facilitates
Karabakh negotiations, reassembled in Washington to assess the peace
process. The group has urged the Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders to
not give up on negotiations. The Minsk Group meeting coincided with
a summit between US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Russian
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Washington that also reportedly
included discussion of a resolution for the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Local observers believe Washington is employing a carrots-and-stick
strategy to keep Azerbaijan at the negotiating table. The stick, they
say, comes in the form of the US State Department’s annual report
on human rights, a document that harshly criticized Azerbaijan’s
observance of voting rights in the 2005 parliamentary elections, as
well as law enforcement officers’ use of torture and arbitrary arrest.
Rumors are also swirling in Baku that President Aliyev could be invited
to Washington to meet with US President George W. Bush in late spring,
provided a breakthrough in Karabakh talks occurs by then. “It is not
excluded that the United States may use an invitation to Washington
as an incentive to get certain concessions from Ilham Aliyev,”
commented Tabib Huseynov, an independent expert on Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. The US government has not given any indication that such
a visit is under consideration, however.
The present aim of US diplomacy seems to be keeping the channels of
communication open. Speaking at a March 14 press conference in Baku,
US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs
Daniel Fried acknowledged that Washington was “disappointed with
the results of the Rambouillet [France] talks,” but added that “the
negotiation process is going on and we hope that the conflict will
be solved in 2006.” Steven Mann, the US co-chair of the Minsk Group,
who arrived in Baku a day earlier, stated that “the spring of 2006
is an important period for the Nagorno-Karabakh talks.”
US officials have clearly intimated that Azerbaijan’s economic
interests would be best served by a negotiated Karabakh settlement.
“The sides who want war should first ask what would Azerbaijan’s
strategic borders be if war starts?” ANS TV reported Mann as saying.
“What will be the situation in the energy sphere and the investment
flow? I know the Azerbaijani people very well and don’t believe that
the Azerbaijani people would want war again.”
Fried held talks in Yerevan on March 15-16 and was scheduled to travel
to Ankara, Turkey, on March 16 for further discussions on the Karabakh
peace process.
Editor’s Note: Fariz Ismailzade is a freelance analyst on Caucasus
politics and economics. He has received his master’s degree from
Washington University in St. Louis and is a regular correspondent
for various international media outlets.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
