CRISIS GROUP PREDICTING WAR?

Lragir/am
21 March 06

To guarantee its own security, the EU should become more engaged
in efforts to resolve the three disputes, for Nagorno-Karabakh,
Abkhazian and South Ossetian conflicts have the potential to ignite
into full-fledged wars in Europe’ s neighborhood, is stated in the
new report of the International Crisis Group, informs the news agency
ARKA. In the new report of the International Crisis Group on the role
of the EU in the settlement of the South Caucasian conflicts it is
stated that with the UN engaged in the settlement of the Abkhazian
conflict and the OSCE in NKR and South Ossetia, the talks lasting
for several decades did not lead to signing peace agreements. With an
image of an “honest broker” and the lure of greater integration into
Europe, the EU is going to play a greater role in the region and aid
the efforts of the UN and the EU, states the report. According to
the experts of this organization, the EU plans to create a chain of
countries with effective governance around it to guarantee its own
security. “Geographic proximity, energy resources, pipelines and the
challenges of international crime and trafficking make stability in the
region a clear EU interest,” is mentioned in the summary of the report.

“As the EU is unlikely to offer membership to Georgia, Armenia
and Azerbaijan even in the medium term, it must identify innovative
means to impose conditionality on its aid and demonstrate influence,”
conclude the experts of the International Crisis Group. Nicolas White,
the director of the European program of the International Crisis Group,
thinks the failure of the EU in secure neighborhood strategy in the
South Caucasus would ruin its reputation. Nicolas White thinks the
biggest concern is that the EU will not be prepared to respond to
the military actions among its neighbors in case of escalation of
the South Caucasian conflicts.