Regnum, Russia
March 25 2006

Expert: models of settlement of military issues without Karabakh are absurd

`Nagorno Karabakh must participate in providing security in the
conflict zone,’ said independent Nagorno Karabakh political expert
David Karabekyan to a REGNUM correspondent. He noted that such
participation, even presumed by the UN Security Council, is blocked
by official Baku, because it can be the ground of Karabakh
independence recognition. The expert noted that in the same time,
Azerbaijan demands from Armenia to obey to UN Security Council
decisions.

He reminded that during negotiations on Nagorno Karabakh settlement,
main criteria of participation in providing security in the region
was regular army structure, and Nagorno Karabakh fully answered this
criteria, while Azerbaijan formed regular army only in 1994, 3 years
after gaining its independence and 2 years after the beginning of
negotiations with Nagorno Karabakh.

The expert noted that in 1994, even after cease-fire agreement in the
conflict zone, Azerbaijan remained unstable, while Nagorno Karabakh
has a stable state structure. It helped Nagorno Karabakh to stop
Azerbaijani forces and launch a successful counter-attack against
more powerful enemy. He reminded that all violation of cease-fire
with Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh were from the Azerbaijani side. It
demonstrates that Azerbaijan authorities are unable to provide
security in the region. So Stepanakert has no reason to trust Baku
and states that it can be more trustworthy guarantor of security
obligations.

Karabekyan stressed that models of settlement of military issues and
events in the framework of regional agreements are absurd without
Karabakh. For example, if Armenia is granted the right to provide
defense of Nagorno Karabakh in the framework of the regional
agreements, but it makes absurd all accusations against Armenia in
annexation of Azerbaijani territory. In such case, Armenia becomes
guilty in all the victims, because it had not moved the troops in
Nagorno Karabakh fast enough and assumed control over it.

The expert thinks that use of multi-national peacekeepers in the
regions will only lead to increase of number of victims, because they
have no responsibility to participate in most important aspects of
the conflict settlement. He reminded about Kosovo events, when
peacekeepers provided security of 60 thousand Albanians by moving
away 200 thousand of native Kosovo Serbians.

He also said that the idea to make Azerbaijan guarantor of Nagorno
Karabakh independence or demilitarize the conflict zone was even more
useless, because it would lead to vacuum of security, and violation
of military parity between conflict sides.

The only way to settle the conflict, according to the expert, is to
adapt regional agreements in defense sphere. The sides must guarantee
mutual control in arms race control, provide security of air
communication with CIS and other countries, and establish
international humanitarian mission in the conflict zone, concluded
Karabekyan.