AZERI LEADER RENEWS KARABAKH WAR THREATS
By Emil Danielyan

Radio Liberty, Czech rep.
March 27 2006

Azerbaijan issued on Monday a fresh threat to win back Nagorno-Karabakh
by force, with President Ilham Aliev warning that he may unleash an
all-out war against Armenia “at any moment.”

Addressing officers of the National Security Ministry, the Azerbaijani
successor to the Soviet KGB, Aliev said there is still a chance of
a peaceful resolution of the Karabakh conflict, but did not specify
whether he thinks it can be achieved this year. He instead urged his
countrymen to be prepared for renewed fighting.

“I think that the peace potential has not yet been exhausted.

Therefore, we will of course remain faithful to the peace process,”
Aliev said in remarks broadcast by the Azerbaijani TV station ANS.

“But at the same time, we must be ready for any eventuality and
that is why Azerbaijan has stepped up its army building efforts in
recent years.

“Our military spending has increased over the past years, and it will
increase further. This is our sovereign right, this is our job. Our
country is in a state of war.”

“The opposite side must know that Azerbaijan is capable of securing
its territorial integrity through war at any moment,” he added.

The comments came against the background of fading hopes for
an imminent Karabakh settlement that stemmed from major progress
registered in Armenian-Azerbaijani peace talks in the course of last
year. Aliev and his Armenian counterpart Robert Kocharian were widely
expected to hammer out a framework peace agreement when they met
in France last month. However, the two-day summit mediated by U.S.,
Russian and French diplomats ended in failure.

Shortly afterwards Aliev reverted to his regular public threats,
always shrugged off by Armenian leaders, to resolve the conflict by
military means. Kocharian responded by warning that Baku’s refusal
to make major concessions to the Armenians could lead Yerevan to
formally recognize Karabakh’s independence.

The Azerbaijani leader’s bellicose rhetoric was indirectly criticized
on Friday by the European Union’s new special representative to
the South Caucasus. “An attempt on the Azeri side to resolve the
conflict by military means will have very serious consequences,”
Peter Semneby told RFE/RL. “It may not be successful in the first
place, and it will also seriously damage Azerbaijan in terms of its
investment climate and reliability as a partner.”

Aliev’s chief foreign policy aide, Novruz Mamedov, was quick to
dismiss the warning. “If Azerbaijan can indeed discredit itself as
a partner if it starts war to liberate its own lands, how come that
Armenia occupied Azerbaijani territories in a war and has kept them
under occupation for 15 years, but this has not discredited Armenia
anyhow?” Mamedov told the Azerbaijani ATV channel.

Meanwhile, the international mediators insist that the peace process
may still be salvaged but seem undecided about their next steps.

Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian said last week that they will
either visit the conflict zone or arrange another round of
Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations soon.