KARABAKH ANALYST: ILHAM ALIYEV JUSTIFIES MILITARIZATION AND HYPER-CENTRALIZATION BY KARABAKH FACTOR
15:44 04/07/2006
“Oil drug heavily influenced minds of Azerbaijani politicians: their
optimism, caused by inflow of oil dollars into Azerbaijani economy
and Azerbaijan’s advantages concerning Armenia turns into bragging and
creating political mythology, which are very dangerous for societies,”
stated Karabakh analyst David Karabekyan to REGNUM.
At the same time, he stressed, most likely Baku will intensify
its activity in foreign policy in future, wishing to strengthen its
positions as independent actor of sub-regional and regional politics,
that more and more firmly and harder proclaims its interests and
readiness to defend them. “In the situation, when the neighboring
country strengthens its pressure on us, it is necessary to defend
our position more fundamentally, more heartily to correct errors,
look for resources to solve problems. I personally believe that to
deal with aggressive regime, propagating hatred against Armenia,
is the same as to put out fire with petrol or to try to calm down
predator with victim’s meat. Every new concession will cause new
demand,” said David Karabekyan.
The analyst stressed, by manipulating the Karabakh factor, Azerbaijani
leaders solve questions of internal policy and of their power’s
strengthening. “Manipulating the Karabakh factor, Aliyev-senior
succeeded in dismissing his fellow countrymen from Nakhichevan Abulfaz
Elchibey from the presidential post, and conjointly, having clearly
calculated political state of affairs in the country and around
Transcaucasia, he got rid of competitors-representatives of national
security, defense and law enforcement agencies, and opponents, as well
as suppressed mutinies in Lenkoran and people’s liberation movement
of Lezghins, living in the North of Azerbaijan,” said David Karabekyan.
According to the analyst, Aliyev-junior smartly uses the factor for
justifying of military expenditures growth, hyper-centralization of
governing, and abundantly wide and active participation of power
structures’ representatives in social and political life of the
country. “As for the struggle against opposition, everything is
easy and effective here. Like his father, Aliyev-junior succeeded
in persuading Azeri and international community, that the post
and political niche, occupied by him, are exactly those, he is
to occupy and will do it for benefit of all and everyone. In
contrast to impulsive and unpredictable Saakashvili, Aliyev is
predictable and bears certain traditions. It means, unlike his
opponents-oppositionists, Aliyev-junior intends to carry out
more reserved and considered policy in direction Russia-West and
Iran-Turkey-Russia-USA. Evidence of it is pretended successes of his
regime, which are proclaimed by Azerbaijani propaganda to be real,
in Karabakh settlement, economy, and growth of Azerbaijani factor in
regional policy,” said David Karabekyan.
The analyst believes, forces opposing to the current regime are not
able to change fundamentally the situation in the country, whereas the
ruling regime demonstrate that it anyhow pushes the country forward.