2006 IS DECIDING BUT NOT FINAL YEAR OF KARABAKH ISSUE
Aghavni Harutiunian
Azat Artsakh, Nagorno Karabakh Republic [NKR]
10 April 2006
The best way of avoiding war is to reach an agreement in the upcoming
months. Moreover, the lack of progress in the settlement of the
conflict over Karabakh is dangerous, and may bring about fundamental
decisions, said Stephen Mann, the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair, during
the press conference at the U.S.
Embassy to Armenia. Despite the expectations of settlement in 2006,
Stephen Mann does not think that the conflict will be finally resolved
in 2006. He thinks it will take long years. At the same time, in
reference to the year 2006 Mann said he would not like the conflict
sides miss this chance and regret for the past. The cases of violation
of the ceasefire at the front line are, according to the co-chair,
dangerous irresponsibility. The OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair stated
that the negotiations in the upcoming months would have a tremendous
importance in deposing the threat of ignition of a war. With regard to
the possibility of igniting wars Stephan Mann said nobody is able to
predict further developments. However, he said, allowing the armies
of both sides to transgress the front line would not guarantee
the settlement of the conflict. For a country, waging a war, the
international community can only look for ways of settlement of the
conflict more intensively. According to Stephen Mann, the co-chairs
would approve the engagement of Nagorno Karabakh in the talks if the
parties gave their approval. The American diplomat thinks that this
question should be viewed from the aspect whether the engagement of
Nagorno Karabakh would guarantee progress in the talks. He believes
that the parties have reached certain progress in the present format
of talks. Stephan Mann appreciated the recent steps of the presidents
of Armenia and Azerbaijan. He said the diplomatic envoys of the
sides are international-level professionals. With regard to using
the model of Kosovo as a precedent, the American co-chair said each
conflict is individual and has its origin and history that must be
honoured. He stated that the Kosovo settlement might prove a bad model
for the complicated conflict of Nagorno Karabakh if it were applied
to the conflict over Karabakh without any modifications. Hence, it
is becoming obvious that the year 2006 contains elements of pressure
in terms of reaching “considerable” progress in the settlement of
the conflict over Karabakh. However, it is not clear how the loud
militaristic statements of the Azerbaijani president would fit into
the mediators’ statements about the necessity to make definitive and
complicated decisions, especially that Aliev’s groundless and empty
statements form public opinion in Azerbaijan, making the Azerbaijanis
unwilling to compromise over the question of Nagorno Karabakh.