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REGION
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C OOPERATION AND SECURITY IN THE BLACK SEA REGION
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Source: `Hurriyet’ newspaper (Turkey) [April 08, 2006]
Author:
I. Turkmen
Recently, special attention is paid to the new geopolitical tendencies
in the Black Sea region. More detailed study of this issue may be
found in the April issue of the `Strategic Analysis’ magazine of the
Eurasia Center of Strategic Research (ECSR). Below is the attempt for
analysis of several aspects of this problem.
We will primarily consider the activity of the organization of Black
Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC). This structure was established in the
1990s on the initiative of Turkey, with the active support of Russia,
however it did not acquire sufficient influence. Besides constant
presence of political uncertainty and discords among the countries of
the region, the balance of forces within the organization is also
influenced by the coming EU membership of Romania and Bulgaria.
The policy of EU in the Black Sea region grew more active. As noted in
the materials of ECSR, certain analysts hold that the strengthening of
EU role in the Black Sea region clashes with the interests of
Turkey. The activity of EU in the region is often viewed as a joint
NATO strategic initiative, a part of which is the democratic movements
in Ukraine and Georgia.
***
In October 2005, the status of observer in the organization was
granted to USA, as a result of persistent efforts. For USA, the Black
Sea region is an important energy transportation hub and a springboard
for establishment of its influence in the Caucasus and Central
Asia. The construction of the bases in Romania and Bulgaria also
pursues this goal.
USA is aspiring to active participation in the cooperation for
regional security, ensuring the involvement of NATO in all similar
initiatives. At present, there is an institute in the region, which is
responsible for cooperation in the security sphere, `Blackseafor’,
established by the countries of the Black Sea basin. The functions of
the structure include operations on the search and rescue,
humanitarian aid and environmental management. USA also intends to
transfer to the Black Sea the `Active Effort’ NATO military exercises,
conducted in the Mediterranean after September 11, 2001 with the
participation of Turkey.
The exercises are aimed at the control of the sea navigation and
counteraction to the questionable vessels. Analogous function is
performed by the initiative of Turkey `Harmony in the Black Sea’, that
Russia recently expressed willingness to join. If a similar step is
taken by USA, a whole set of problems will emerge, particularly
related to the Montreux Agreement. The Agreement restricts the tonnage
of the ships of the non-Black Sea countries in passing over the Black
Sea straits, and limits the time of their navigation in the Black
Sea. Periodically, there is information that USA is lobbying for
introduction of amendments in the Agreement, however with no result so
far.
The second problem may be the fact that recently Turkey opts for the
Russian position, resisting the strengthened influence of USA in the
Black Sea region. However, it is essential to remember that
minimization of the USA Navy in the Black Sea does not mean prevention
of air operations in the region. Having left the bases of Romania and
Bulgaria, the American planes may reach Caucasus and then Iran and
Central Asia.
***
On the one hand, Turkey’s intention to preserve the leading role in
the Black Sea is natural and understandable. On the other hand, new
reasons for discord with USA are also of no advantage to Turkey.
Therefore, the sides need to keep to the middle way.
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ECONOMY
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RUSSIAN EMBARGO ON GEORGIAN WINE…
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Source: `Resonansi-Nedelya’ newspaper (Georgia) [April 10, 2006]
Author: Gela Mtivlishvili
Russia’s ban on import of the Georgian wine was a serious blow to the
Georgian wine-making. Despite the loud and inspiring statements of the
Georgian authorities that serious negotiations on this political
decision will be started with Russia, the embargo is still in
force. According to the Georgian wine-makers, if the current situation
lasts one more month, the autumn harvest of grapes (rtveli) is already
doomed.
The export of the Georgian alcoholic produce to Russia was stopped a
month ago. Officially, Moscow explained its decision by the struggle
with falsification and low-quality products. However, both the
Georgian authorities and the Kakhetian wine-makers (Kakheti region is
the center of Georgian wine-making) state that it is not an economic
but purely political decision, since no claims can be put to the
quality of the exported produce.
`To prove it, the Ministry of Agriculture, by it own means, sent
samples of Georgian wine to reputable international laboratories,
President Sahakashvili makes statements on a daily basis, meets the
governors, so what? How can it help us?’ the Kakhetian villagers
complain. `The government is mocking itself or us? It is clear that
the government depends on America, whereas the people look to
Russia. We are not demanding Russia’s favor by all means, but we can
find a way to improve our relations with it, can’t we?! If this year
our produce does not get to Russia, what are we supposed to do? We
will have no money for petrol at least to cultivate the potato and
corn fields’, Georgiy Nadiradze (78) stated to `Resonansi’.
Russian embargo will possibly make the autumn rtveli senseless. `If we
do not sell the wine, we will not have a chance to gather and process
the new harvest’, Head of the Supervisory Board of `Telavi Wine
Cellar’ Zurab Ramazashvili said to `Resonansi-Nedelya’.
Other famous wine-makers and producers agree with him. Director of
`Alaverdi’ wine factory Soso Goyiashvili says that besides Russia,
wine is also exported to other countries, but the Russian share makes
85%! `If the situation does not change, we are on the verge of huge
problems, the scope of which can hardly be imagined now’, he stated to
`Resonansi-Nedelya’. Last week, Minister of Finance Lexo Lexishvili
met Kakhetian wine-makers. The wine-makers asked the Minister for
fiscal privileges, since the situation in wine-making sphere is
unbearable. The Minister promised to put this issue on the agenda of
the government session, thus raising indignation of the Kakhetians –
they have committed follies in the relations with Russia and now we
have to think about fiscal privileges! Unlike them, the governor of
Kakheti, Petre Tsiskarishvili was satisfied with the meeting. `I am
confident, the Minister of Finance will manage to convince the
government of the necessity for introducing tax privileges for the
wine-makers placed in a difficult situation’, he stated.
However, the attitude in Kakheti is overall depressing. `Promises from
the President and the Government is all we hear. Nothing changes in
reality, and the hope is vanishing daily’, the wine-makers say. The
wine-producers are also skeptical about the possibility of quick
finding of new diversified markets, as asserted by the Georgian
authorities, viewing Ukraine, Kazakhstan, China, EU countries and the
regional neighbors as an alternative. `We need to improve the
relations with Russia, where we have long exported our
produce. Finding new markets is a long and strenuous process, not
always successful. In the meantime, it is hard to say what may become
of the Georgian wine-making’, they say.
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NEIGHBOURS
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THERE IS NO DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN TURKEY AND AZERBAIJAN
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Source: “Zerkalo” newspaper (Azerbaijan) [April 05, 2006]
Author:
F. Teymurkhanli, R. Mirkadirov
Such is the opinion of the heads of states
“The investments of the Turkish businessmen in the Azerbaijani economy
made 2,2 billion USD, without energy sector input. The general volume
of the investments is today equaled to the estimated sum of 4,5
billion USD”, as stated at the meeting with Azerbaijani President
Ilham Aliev by his Turkish colleague Ahmed Necdet Sezer on official
visit to Baku.
In his opinion, these investments may be increased under more
favorable conditions for the investors. At the same time, the Turkish
President emphasized that the turnover between the two countries is on
the stable growth, `If in 2004 it made 550 million USD, in 2005 – 795
million. This year, the sides are planning to raise this figure to a
billion”.
On his behalf, I. Aliev said that official Baku attaches great
significance to this visit. He noted that Azerbaijan cooperates with
Turkey in various spheres and it was always important in the aspect of
regional relations as well.
All these words were voiced at the point of the meeting when the
journalists were present. Later, the media representatives were asked
out. Later in a briefing, the Presidents themselves provided
information on the subject of the negotiations to the journalists.
Thus, A. Sezer emphasized that solidarity in the cooperation between
Turkey and Azerbaijan may serve as a good example for all the states
in the region. “The input of the partners for ensuring the security of
the two brother nations will still increase due to the new projects
implemented alongside the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. The latter
will be put to exploitation already in the coming months, and I
invited President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliev to participate in its
opening ceremony”, Head of the Turkish State noted. Referring to the
issue of short-term prospects for economic cooperation, A. Sezer also
stated that in the course of the meeting, the Presidents emphasized
the decisiveness of the sides in implementation of the projects of
Baku-Tbilisi-Erzrum gas pipeline and Baku-Tbilisi-Akhalkalaki-Kars
railway. According to the Turkish President, these projects `will make
the two brother nations still closer within their strategic
interests”. Further on, the Turkish President stressed that during his
meeting with I. Aliev they also discussed the issues of developing
economic and political ties between the two countries and the regional
conflicts, in particular, the issue of settling the Karabagh
issue. `Turkey has always supported and will keep supporting the
position of Azerbaijan on this issue. We view the solution of the
Mountainous Karabagh conflict in the context of preserving territorial
integrity of Azerbaijan through peaceful negotiations”, A. Sezer
stated, once again emphasizing that Ankara is ready to take all effort
for resolution of Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Referring to the
issue of settling the Cyprus problem, he expressed satisfaction with
the position of Azerbaijan in this aspect, particularly the measures
taken by Azerbaijan on withdrawal of the Cyprus Turks from the
international isolation. On his behalf, President Aliev noted that the
relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey are on a high level today, `We
attach great s! ignificance to the visit of the Turkish President. I
am confident that the visit of Ahmed Necdet Sezer to Baku will give a
new push to the development of the bilateral relations”.
I. Aliev also stated that the position of Azerbaijan on the settlement
of Mountainous Karabagh conflict is unchanged. “We opt for it to be
settled on the basis of international legal norms, that is respecting
the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan under the condition that our
refugees return to their homeland. These principles reflect both the
reality and the justice, in accordance with international law”,
I. Aliev emphasized.
Thus, the issues of resolving the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict were
the priorities on the agenda of the two Presidents’ meeting. `In this
case Turkey always stands by Azerbaijan. This support is very
important for us. The position of Turkey is just and Azerbaijan is
grateful for it’, I. Live stressed.
Further on, the President of Azerbaijan noted that our country feels
constant support and help of the brother state from the first day of
independence.
I. Aliev stated that the negotiations with his Turkish colleague also
referred to the regional projects, particularly the construction of
the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan export pipeline and the South Caucasus gas
pipeline. According to President of Azerbaijan, these entities are
under construction and already this year they will be put to
operation. Raising the issue of opening the
Kars-Akhalkalaki-Tbilisi-Baku railway communication, I. Aliev noted
that `the sides do not have any disagreement in this
respect”. “Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia will take an active part in
the project, and we hope it will be a success”, I. Aliev
noted. According to Azerbaijani President, presently the
trade-economic relations between the countries are
enlarging. “Alongside this, they do not fully reflect the current
potential. I think in the future the cooperation will start developing
at a quicker pace”, I. Aliev stated.
Still we should pay attention to certain details in the relations
between Azerbaijan and Turkey. We will start from the fact that the
steps of Azerbaijan on the withdrawal of the Northern Cyprus from
international isolation today sets serious problems for official Baku
already in the relations with the European Union and impedes the
negotiations on ratification of the action plan on cooperation with
this international organization. The Southern, i.e. Greek Cyprus,
demands written guarantees from official Baku ensuring that Azerbaijan
will never recognize the independence of the Turkish
Cyprus. Otherwise, the Turks threaten blocking the involvement of
Azerbaijan in the New Neighborhood Policy programme.
Further on, a few words about the Turkish investments in the
Azerbaijani economy. In this issue as well, it is time to change the
priorities. First, now we can speak about not only the Turkish
investments in Azerbaijan but also the Azerbaijani investments in the
Turkish economy, though partially of shadow nature. Second, in the
time to come the possibilities of Azerbaijan to invest in the Turkish
economy will incomparably surpass the resources of the Turkish.
Finally, the issue of Karabagh settlement is not that clear. The
Turkish officials have always stated that they will open the borders
with Armenia only after settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani
conflict, though our newspaper repeatedly wrote that official Ankara
in its turn has enough problems in the relations with Yerevan. Such is
the situation. `The international observers expect that Turkey will
open the borders with Armenia”, the advisor of the Turkish Prime
Minister on foreign relations, the deputy of the Turkish Parliament
Egemen Bagis stated in his speech at the Council on Foreign Relations
of New York. “We recognize Armenia as an independent state. We do not
have diplomatic relations but we respect their (Armenians’) right for
independence similarly to all the former Soviet Republics”, he
said. The advisor of the Turkish Prime Minister noted that Turkey does
not open the borders with Armenia and does not establish diplomatic
relations `since Armenia does not recognize these borders”. “The
Armenian Constitution urges not to recognize the borders with Turkey’,
Bagis noted, as reported by `Liberty’ radio.
Thus, the attitude of official Ankara to opening of the
Turkish-Armenian border also hinges on the foreign policy
situation. In other words, it is changing with regard to the object of
`consumption’. When the statements are addressed to Azerbaijan, Ankara
`recollects’ the Karabagh conflict, when it is necessary to
substantiate the refusal from establishment of normal relations with
Yerevan in the West, the argument is Armenia’s unwillingness to
recognize the territorial integrity of Turkey itself. Therefore, we
should not link the relations between Turkey and Armenia with the
Mountainous Karabagh conflict to avoid additional obligations even to
this brother nation. As for the problems with `Barmek’, we may settle
them on friendly terms…
In conclusion, we will note that initially the visit of the Turkish
President to Azerbaijan was fixed for January 25-26 of the current
year but because of the bad weather conditions, it took place only
yesterday. Today, A. Sezer will meet the Head of Azerbaijani
government Arthur Rasizade and will visit Heydar Aliev Foundation. At
this, the visit of the Turkish President to Azerbaijan will end.
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INT. STRUCTURES
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NEIGHBORHOOD POLICY DOES NOT OPEN PROSPECTS FOR EU MEMBERSHIP
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Source: “Golos Armenii” newspaper (Armenia) [April 11, 2006]
Author: Tatul Hakobian
EU Envoy for the South Caucasus Peter Semneby stated in an exclusive
interview to `GA’
– Mr. Semneby, this is your first visit to Yerevan as an EU Special
Envoy, and a few weeks ago you visited Baku and Tbilisi. Summing up,
what are your first impressions and what impulses will go from you to
Brussels after the trip?
– I believe the countries of the region after the independence have
gone a long way. The new European neighborhood policy opens new
possibilities for both each of the countries separately, as well as
for the whole region of South Caucasus. Currently the greatest
problems are those of their interrelations that can hardly be solved
on a bilateral basis, and here EU and the neighborhood policy can play
a key role, starting a new stage in the region development.
– Your interpretation of the neighborhood policy. Does this initiative
mean a promise of EU membership for the countries of the region or
this is just a prospect? Experts are of the opinion that this is
purely a `police barrier’ around EU.
– I d not agree with the `barrier’. EU is truly interested in the
development of the neighboring countries. The interest increases as
shortly the EU will have two new members on the Black Sea
coast. Turkey’s accession is being negotiated and this country shares
a border with South Caucasus. The interest of the EU increases also
because the energy issues gain particular importance. EU has a
fundamental interest in the stability and prosperity of the immediate
neighbors. The European neighborhood policy does not open the
prospects of EU membership. But I think this is not that important,
since the policy contains numerous components that would allow
bringing the countries of the region closer to the status, standard
that the EU countries already enjoy, this is a hard way, and it is
necessary to concentrate, to invest efforts and energy to take it.
– Mr. Semneby, is the blockade considered to be a hostile act in the
European policy?
– It is not normal to have the borders closed. Armenia has a
particular problem in this respect/l two of the four borders are
closed. I hope that the problem can be solved quite soon and the
Karabagh conflict resolution will give it a push.
– Recently, in Sweden, that you represent, the President of Armenia
announced that Turkey hopes to become a member of the European Union
and blocks Armenia at the same time. He qualified the situation as
abnormal.
– I was there. I do hope that the problem will be resolved and the
prospects of Karabagh resolution will give it a push. Even if one
overlooks the problem of Mountainous Karabagh, the closed border is an
abnormal situation.
– Do you believe the Karabagh conflict resolution and the improvement
of relations between Armenia and Turkey are interconnected?
– Of course, there is an interconnection. It is not a secret that the
Turkish border is closed partly due to the Karabagh conflict.
– Which of the two would you say is to be resolved first, or may be
the resolution should occur simultaneously?
– It is hard to say. Any model is acceptable.
– But for the three frozen conflicts, Turkey continues the blockade of
Armenia; the situation is also quite complicated in Georgian-Russian
relations. Considering this, what is your view of the integration of
the South Caucasus in European structures?
– I think that the precondition for prosperity is the normal relations
between the countries of the region and the countries out of the
region. In order to develop such relations, one of course must resolve
the frozen conflicts. They take much attention, political energy and
are a serious impediment for the normal development. The resolution of
frozen conflicts is in the interests of the region and EU. I hope this
opinion is shared by the neighbors of the region, primarily, Turkey
and Russia.
– In Armenia and Azerbaijan there is an opinion that Presidents Robert
Kocharian and Ilham Aliev procrastinate in the Karabagh
resolution. What would you say?
– I think this is a matter of historical responsibility for the
problem resolution. The Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan have this
chance, and I think they will use it to make a historical step in the
interests of their countries, people, and the whole region. This is a
difficult step because the solution is only possible when each party
compromises in ties demands and expectations. This must be done by
both the Armenian and the Azerbaijani parties. While this is
difficult, I am deeply convinced: there are very few controversies not
to be able to achieve a solution in the end.
– You have recently announced that the EU can say its word in the
post-conflict situation, also in the peace operation.
– This is an option. I think when the agreements are signed, an appeal
to EU will probably follow and EU will certainly consider the
issue. But it is important to note that this is not the only
option. It is too early to say what the peace operation will be like
and who it will involve. Besides, there is a great need for
rehabilitation in the conflict zone, and I think here, too, EU will
play the key role.
– Does this mean that the parties are so close to conflict resolution
that it is time to speak about peace building and rehabilitation on
the conflict territory?
– The parties were close to solution in Rambouillet two months
ago. Unfortunately, for a number of reasons this never happened, but
the negotiations and discussions continue, and I have a feeling that
Rambouillet was a push to realize the historical responsibility and an
opening of prospects, it made it clear what the price of not reaching
an agreement soon will be. I remain a cautious optimist and I think
that there are still possibilities.
– Russia is one of the key players in South Caucasus. In official
Moscow there is an opinion that the new European neighborhood policy
sets unequal conditions for Russia.
– I do not think that Russia has any doubts on the ENP. On the
contrary, its interests often coincide with the European
interests. This is true primarily for the prosperity and stability in
the adjacent region.
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