ALIYEV’S INVITATION TO THE WHITE HOUSE: A BLESSING OR A CURSE?
By Fariz Ismailzade

Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
April 13 2006

Officials in Baku are rejoicing. Three years after his election,
Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev has received an official
invitation to visit the White House and meet with U.S. President George
W. Bush. In a press release issued by the White House on April 10,
the invitation was justified by the fact that “Azerbaijan is a key
ally in a region of great importance and a valued partner, making
important contributions in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Kosovo.” The meeting
with President Bush, set for April 28, will include discussion of a
wide range of issues, including democracy promotion and cooperation in
the Caucasus, energy diversification, and the shared U.S.-Azerbaijani
commitment to working together to advance freedom and security.

The invitation comes as a slap in the face to the Azerbaijani
opposition, which has long complained about election fraud in the
country and the lack of adequate pressure from the Western community
on the Aliyev administration. The Azerbaijani opposition has often
cited the continuing refusal to invite President Aliyev to Washington,
while Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and Georgian President
Mikheil Saakashvili were welcomed immediately after elections in
their countries, to show the international community’s negative
assessment of the state of democracy in Azerbaijan. Now this trump
card has disappeared.

Local analysts predict that two issues will dominate the talks
between Aliyev and Bush: Iran and Azerbaijan’s long-standing
conflict with Armenia over the Karabakh enclave. “There will be a
set of complex issues on the agenda, but Iran will dominate it with
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict being included into the discussion
through the prism of the Iranian question,” independent political
analyst Ilgar Mammadov told Jamestown. “Everything tells us that the
negotiations will focus around the Iranian and Karabakh problems,”
according to an editorial in the opposition Azadliq newspaper on
April 9. Consequently, the long-anticipated invitation from Washington
might not be the blessing that was expected by official Baku.

Political scientist Fuad Gahramanli believes “Aliyev is not interested
in participating in possible military operations against Iran and
actively tries to stay away from this process.” For that reason,
the invitation to the United States at this particular moment might
not please Aliyev that much, concludes Gahramanli (Azadliq, April
7). Mammadov also believes that Azerbaijan will try to play a careful
game, but “It is not for sure yet if Azerbaijan will stay completely
outside of the process.”

Still, some other experts forecast that the Karabakh conflict will
top the discussions, as Washington is re-energizing peace talks
between Armenia and Azerbaijan and trying to save the failed talks
in Rambouillet, outside Paris, on February 11. The intensive trips
by the OSCE’s Minsk group co-chairs into the region in the last few
weeks have raised speculations about the possibility of reaching an
agreement on this conflict in 2006. U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan
Reno L. Harnish III, has told the local Azerbaijani media that there
are good prospects for settling the conflict in 2006. Furthermore,
Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov said after his trip to
the Washington last week “some new, interesting proposals regarding
the solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict have been offered
and the Azerbaijani government will discuss them” (Turan, April 10,
also see EDM, April 12).

“The United States is interested in a quick resolution of the conflict
this year,” Mammadov told Jamestown, “but whether Russia will help in
this process is still not clear.” ANS-TV radio quoted Yuri Merzlyakov,
the Russian co-chair of the Minsk group, as saying that there is no
competition between the co-chairs and that President Aliyev met with
Russian President Vladimir Putin long before he is scheduled to meet
with President Bush (ANS-TV, April 13).

Much is expected from Aliyev’s upcoming trip to Washington, yet most
local analysts agree that the negotiations will be tough for the
Azerbaijani president. Particularly, any possible pressures on Aliyev
to agree to the terms of the referendum that is being proposed for the
resolution of the Karabakh conflict might produce counter-productive
results domestically. The Azerbaijani opposition is carefully watching
what will happen in Washington and they will try to dampen President
Aliyev’s excitement about the long-anticipated meeting with President
Bush by focusing on the failures of Azerbaijani diplomacy regarding
the Karabakh conflict. As for President Bush, he is no longer feeling
the necessity to postpone this invitation, as his re-election in 2004
has removed the need to take domestic considerations into account
regarding such an action.

Now the emphasis is on security and foreign policy, areas in which
Azerbaijan could be a key ally.