LEONID IVASHOV: THREAT OF RESUMPTION OF HOSTILITIES IN KARABAKH QUITE REAL
PanARMENIAN.Net
17.04.2006 GMT+04:00
Interview
The South Caucasus has always been a place of collision of
superpowers. Due to the Nagorno Karabakh and Georgian-Abkhaz conflict
there is an impression formed that Russia is gradually being forced
out of the region. What is the actual state of affairs?
PanARMENIAN.Net asked first vice-president of the Academy of
Geopolitical Studies, Colonel General, Doctor of Historical Sciences
Leonid Ivashov, who headed Russian Army General Staff till 2001.
How serious are Azerbaijan’s statements on readiness to resumption
of hostilities on the Karabakh front?
Security issues should always be treated seriously.
Taking into account the complexity of the Nagorno Karabakh problem
security is the main task of the state and the major responsibility of
the President and government. Only via military balance it’s possible
to preserve political settlement. The threat of an armed conflict
and resumption of hostilities is quite real.
Keeping the situation within a political settlement is possible only
via balance of military potentials.
Domination of military force of one of the parties can result in a
new bloodshed.
Which is the Russia’s policy towards settlement of the Nagorno
Karabakh conflict?
The Russian leadership lacks a precise strategy on the South
Caucasus. In relations with Azerbaijan and Armenia Russia abides
by the balance of friendly interaction. This line helps to maintain
peace in Karabakh.
A notion is formed lately that Russia is trying to strengthen its
position in the South Caucasus resorting to means that are not
popular. Is this true?
Russia, in the person of the reasonable part of its leadership, is
trying to maintain its presence and influence in the Caucasus. It’s
important for Russia to prevent destabilization in the North Caucasus,
deployment of NATO military bases and projection of military force
inland.
In my opinion, Armenia is Russia’s monument point in the South
Caucasus. At the same time it is vitally important for Armenia to have
allied relations with Russia. If Armenia relies on promises made by
the West it will lose its state system and independence.
If Georgia and Azerbaijan escape the zone of Russia’s influence, will
not Armenia be isolated, hoping for Russia’s good will, which can act
in the same manner, as in 1921 by concluding an alliance with Ataturk?
Armenia has the right to establish relations with whom it wishes. But
if it conflicts with Russia’s interests Moscow can transform
cooperation into the level of mutually beneficial relations without
any political or economic preferences. However such situation will
conflict with Armenia’s national interests and will result in the
isolation of the republic and even in its collapse.
A large Armenian Diaspora lives in Russia. “I think it could make a
great contribution to the development of the Russian-Armenian allied
relations.