Christian Science Monitor
April 26, 2006

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Kurds quietly angle for independence

Oil revenue could give Iraq’s Kurds greater economic distance from
Baghdad, experts say.

By James Brandon | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor

ARBIL, IRAQ – As Iraq’s government takes shape after months of
political deadlock, the country’s leading Kurdish politicians have
promised to work toward a cohesive and peaceful Iraq.

“If [Prime Minister Jawad] al-Maliki quickly establishes a powerful
government that includes all groups, he will be an asset for the Iraqi
people,” said Jalal Talabani, the Kurdish president of Iraq, after
Iraq’s Parliament approved his second term and named Shiite politician
Mr. Maliki to replace the embattled Ibrahim al-Jaafari.

The Kurdish desire for independence, however, still runs deep. And
with parts of Iraq increasingly unstable and growing more Islamic,
experts say the Kurds, who are relatively secular, are working quietly
to consolidate and extend the autonomy they have enjoyed since 1991.

The Kurdish Regional Government, which has run the Kurd’s autonomous
zone in northern Iraq since the early 1990s, recently has signed
contracts with foreign oil companies to explore for new oil fields in
Kurdish-ruled areas of Iraq. Experts say they hope the revenue
generated from these deals could provide greater economic, and thus
political, independence from Baghdad.

“The Kurds are offering attractive terms to companies that are willing
to take a gamble on the legal situation,” says Rafiq Latta, a Middle
East editor of the Argus Oil and Gas report in London. “And some small
oil companies are prepared to take the bait.”

The Norwegian oil firm DNO has been quickest off the mark, followed by
Canadian firm Western Oil Sands. DNO began exploration in northern
Iraq in 2004. But two weeks ago it announced that it would be able to
begin pumping oil from one newly discovered field near the city of
Zakho in early 2007.

At present Kurdistan’s annual budget comes from its share of Iraq’s
overall oil revenues, which are distributed according to
population. As a result, the Kurds receive 17 percent of Iraq’s
overall $30 billion annual oil revenues.

Iraq’s oil exports, however, are mainly from the Shiite-dominated
south – meaning that Iraq’s Shiite rulers, theoretically at least,
could shut down Kurdish northern Iraq’s economy at will.

Kurdish oil aspirations are also challenged by poor security and the
Constitution, which states that, unlike oil exploration, contracts to
repair existing oil fields must be negotiated by the Oil Ministry in
Baghdad.

Last week, Shamkhi Faraj, head of marketing and economics at the
Ministry of Oil in Baghdad, estimated that Iraq’s oil industry needed
$25 billion to repair war damage and replace old equipment and
infrastructure.

So far the Shiite-controlled Ministry of Oil has been largely
unsuccessful in signing contracts to repair the oil fields. Experts
say that foreign companies are worried by possible insurgent attacks,
but also by the political uncertainty of Baghdad.

Consequently, the Kurds have been unable to fully repair the oil
fields around Kirkuk, largely under Kurdish control since 2003. This
is a source of frustration for the Kurds, as the fields contain around
15 percent of Iraq’s oil wealth.

But even if the Kurds could fund the reconstruction of oil facilities
in Kirkuk themselves – as some are now suggesting – this would mark
only a start. The Kurds would also have to build new pipelines to
export their oil.

“Under Saddam the oil fields were very badly damaged,” says
Mr. Latta. “Water was pumped into them as cheap way to increase
output, and a huge amount of foreign investment is going to be needed.

“And even then it’s not just a simple matter of having oil reserves
and turning on the taps,” he says. “Managing that investment will
require a lot of expertise, which the Kurds simply don’t have.”

The Kurds have, however, at least consolidated their physical control
over Kirkuk’s oil. Before the US invasion in 2003, Kirkuk was a mainly
Arab city. Today Kurds are the majority, having driven out many of the
Shiite Arabs brought in by Saddam Hussein to “Arabize” the city.

“Those who were brought to Kirkuk by Saddam should leave and then
there should be a referendum,” says Azad Jundiani, head of the media
office of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) – one of the two main
Kurdish political parties.

But a recent move by influential cleric Moqtada al-Sadr indicates that
Shiites are trying to counter Kurdish control of Kirkuk. The
Washington Post reported Tuesday that “hundreds of Shiite Muslim
militiamen have deployed in recent weeks” there. The newspaper said as
many as 240 fighters loyal to Mr. Sadr have arrived to the city.

Almost as important to long-term Kurdish ambitions is Tal Afar, an
Iraqi city that’s ethnically Turkish but Shiite by religion. It lies
between Mosul and the Kurdish enclave of Sinjar near the Syrian
border.

“Tal Afar is the Kurds’ access route to Sinjar, and through Sinjar
they have access to Syrian Kurdistan,” explains Joost Hiltermann, a
Middle East analyst at the Brussels-based International Crisis
Group. In other words, if the Kurds can also take and hold Tal Afar,
then their dream of a greater Kurdistan remains alive.

“They claim Tal Afar to be a Kurdish area and a place where many
Kurdish live but, in fact, it’s an important milestone on the road to
the creation of Greater Kurdistan,” says Dr. Hiltermann.

In the past few weeks fighting there has revived awareness of Kurdish
vulnerability, especially as reports circulate that Iranian and
Turkish troops are concentrating along the borders of Iraq’s Kurdish
north.

Many Iraqi Kurds are increasingly aware of the obstacles to greater
independence. Both Kurdish political leaders and ordinary citizens are
resigning themselves to remaining part of Iraq for the foreseeable
future.

“The Kurds desire to rule themselves,” says Farhad Auny, head of the
Journalists’ Syndicate in Arbil. “But at the same time it is not to
the benefit of the Middle East, the international community or the
Kurds themselves to ask for independence now.”

And to this end the Kurds are starting to think the unthinkable and
begin a process of forgiving their Arab compatriots.

“Since the establishment of Iraq 80 years ago the Kurds have been
exploited and tortured by all Iraqi governments,” says Mr. Auny. “We
are not going to talk about what we have suffered from the Arabs but
it has taught us that we must build a modern and developed country.

“The Kurdish people are flexible and forgiving but they never forget,”
he says. “To hate is to be weak. You cannot grow good crops in a soil
of hatred.”

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