OFFICIAL BAKU AFFORDS COMPLIMENTS TO YEREVAN

PanARMENIAN.Net
24.04.2006 GMT+04:00

After the regional visits of American and French co-chairmen of the
Minsk group accents of Armenian and Azeri diplomats have slightly
changed.

The official regional tour of the American co-chairman of OSCE Minsk
group Steven Mann has drawn to an end.

After negotiating with President Robert Kocharyan and Foreign Affairs
Minister Vardan Oskanyan, Mann went to Baku where he met Ilham Aliev
and Elmar Mamedyarov.

Official summaries of press services do not allow to judge about the
productivity of the American diplomat’s visit. However, it is quite
obvious that in the negotiations process there is a certain stir up,
which can bring to resumption of direct contacts between parties in
the nearest future.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ During the past few weeks co-chairman of the
Minsk group have been making serious efforts towards leading the
negotiation process out of deadlock. There is indeed an impression
that in this issue Russia has taken up a more passive role. As it
is known, the first impulse towards resumption of negotiations
came from Americans. Later on the initiative was caught up by
French co-chairman Bernard Fassie who arrived in the region with a
concrete package of proposals. Bernard Fassie’s mission was continued
by Steven Mann. Meanwhile, Russian co-chairman Yuri Merzlyakov
still refrains from trips to Caucasus and follows the process
from aside. Nevertheless, it would be wrong to say that Moscow is
keeping away from the process. On April 19 in Moscow Steven Mann held
negotiations with his Russian colleague and a high-ranking diplomat,
most likely the deputy foreign minister. As for foreign minister
Sergey Lavrov, he discussed the situation with his colleagues from
Armenia and Azerbaijan during the conference of Ministers of Foreign
Affairs of CIS countries. In any case, there are no grounds to assert
that Russian diplomacy is refusing to support the latest initiatives
of American and French co-chairmen.

It is quite possible that already after a few days Yuri Merzlyakov
will join the process, resumed in the Minsk group format.

To all appearance the efforts of mediators are not just a show of
activity, but a real attempt to find new points of contact between
the parties. Co-chairmen refused from the idea to start negotiations
from the very beginning that is to say from the point where they were
locked in Ramboulliet. Yerevan and Baku do not deny that the mediators
have really presented new proposals for conflict regulation. However,
Vardan Oskanyan thinks that it is more correct to speak not about “new
principles of regulation” but “new formulations of principles”. This
is already something if we take into account the fact that right
after the initiatives were made high-ranking diplomats in Baku and
Yerevan started making quite encouraging announcements. It is obvious
that there will be changes. Will they result in an outbreak in the
negotiation process? Let us wait and see.

Something has evidently changed in the approach of parties. Accents
of announcements made by Armenian and Azeri diplomats have
shifted. Recently Vardan Oskanyan made it clear that Yerevan will agree
to discuss the possible return of Armenian controlled territories
out of Karabakh if Azerbaijan agrees to recognize legitimacy of the
referendum, which will be held later. “If Azerbaijan acknowledges
the right of Nagorno Karabakh on self-determination not at once but
in future, the Armenian party is ready to discuss issues concerning
elimination of war consequences – territories, refugees, etc”, said the
minister. This point was actually not discussed in Ramboulliet. In
Ramboulliet parties could not come to agreement because of the
extremely rigid position of official Baku. But now, through the lips
of the head of information department Tair Tagizade, the Ministry
of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan welcomes Vardan Oskanyan’s speech,
which “testifies to the constructive position of Armenia. It can be
viewed as an approval of the fact that the Armenian party adheres to
peaceful negotiations and realizes national interests of Armenia”,
said the official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
of Azerbaijan.

What are these compliments for? Vardan Oskanyan did not say anything
new. Yet before, Yerevan had expressed readiness to withdraw military
forces from the security zone if Azerbaijan recognizes the right
of Karabakh to self-determination. It is obvious that Azeris have
suddenly ceased fearing the word “self-determination” which is an
important symptom. It is possible that Baku leaders are trying to
make people believe that recognizing the right to self-determination
is not that dangerous. Commenting on his own words, Tagizade says
that self-determination can function within Azerbaijan too.

“Under self-determination we should understand giving a special status
of autonomy in the structure of Azerbaijan” the diplomat says. However
it is already not important what Azeris consider a desirable result
of self-determination. By the way the people of Karabakh have already
approved their readiness to conduct another referendum on the status
of Nagorno-Karabakh. On Wednesday Arkady Ghukasyan said that the new
referendum is quite possible since international community did not
recognize the results of the referendum held in 1991.

Thus, there have been quite constructive announcements in all the
three capitals involved in the conflict.

Those statements allow hoping for if not an outbreak, but at least
progress in the negotiation process. What is also important is that
those things happen on the eve of Ilham Aliev’s visit to Washington. It
appears that George Bush will appreciate Aliev’s readiness to review
the rigid approaches, which brought to the failure of Ramboulliet
meeting. Maybe this is what the Azeri diplomacy is relying on.

“PanARMENIAN.Net” analytical department