EurasiaNet, NY
April 28 2006
ALIYEV IN WASHINGTON: NO CHANGE ON IRAN POSITION
Shahin Abbasov 4/28/06
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said April 28 that his three-day
visit to Washington would play an “instrumental” role in promoting
the democratization of the Caucasus nation. He added that the visit
had not altered Baku’s position on the Iran crisis, appearing to
reduce the White House’s room for geopolitical maneuver on the issue.
Aliyev met with top US officials on the final day of his Washington
stay – President George W. Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney and
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Speaking to journalists, the
Azerbaijani leader said his talks with Bush “covered all aspects of
our bilateral relations.” Bush said he emphasized three topics –
energy, Iran and democratization. The US president added that global
democratization efforts would benefit from Azerbaijan’s emergence as
“a modern Muslim country that is able to provide for its citizens,
that understands that democracy is the wave of the future.”
The Azerbaijani leader said the trip would prove “instrumental in the
future development of Azerbaijan as a modern, secular state.” Aliyev
went on to stress the stalemated Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks,
expressing hope for a negotiated end to the conflict and adding that
any settlement would have to preserve Azerbaijan’s territorial
integrity. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
“Armenian troops have to withdraw from occupied territories,
Azerbaijani internally displaced persons have to return, and after
that we can discuss the status of Nagorno-Karabakh,” Aliyev said.
On Iran, the two presidents provided scant details on their
discussions, suggesting that a significant geopolitical difference
exists. Political analysts in Baku believed that US officials were
eager to obtain Azerbaijani support for possible military strikes
against Iran in order to prevent Iran from continuing with its
nuclear research. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Baku has been opposed to the use of force against Iran, which is
Azerbaijan’s southern neighbor. [For background see the Eurasia
Insight archive]. Aliyev told Azerbaijani television April 28 that
“our position has not changed – the problem should be resolved by
diplomatic means.”
Prior to the presidential meeting, Elmar Mamedyarov, Azerbaijan’s
foreign minister, said the Bush-Aliyev discussions would aim to
provide US officials with a clearer picture of Azerbaijani-Iranian
relations. “Iran is our neighbour and many Azerbaijanis are living
there. We carry cargo to Nakhchivan [an Azerbaijani exclave] via
Iran. We supply Nakhchivan with Iranian gas. That is why we do not
want a military solution to the Iranian problem,” he told journalists
on April 27. Mamedyarov also discouraged speculation that Aliyev was
acting as a go-between in the US-Iranian dispute. He denied that
Iran’s defense minister, Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar, who visited Baku on
April 19, had asked Azerbaijani officials to pass along a message to
the Bush administration.
Though military cooperation and US access to bases in Azerbaijan now
seem out of the question, the United States may tighten intelligence
gathering and sharing, suggested Kaan Nazli, a Europe and Eurasia
analyst with the New York-based consulting firm, Eurasia Group. “The
real issue is continuation of intelligence cooperation,” Nazli said.
That Aliyev met with John Negroponte, director of national
intelligence, and that the Azerbaijani president’s entourage included
National Security Minister Eldar Makhmudov lend credence to the idea
that the two states explored ways to enhance intelligence
cooperation.
Some analysts in Baku characterized the Washington visit as an
all-around success for Aliyev. “His position in Azerbaijan is stable,
and he did not have to ask any favors of the United States.
Meanwhile, the United States needs Azerbaijani support in the Iran
issue,” said Ilgar Mammadov, an independence political analyst.
Opposition leaders in Baku, struggling to regain traction after
parliamentary elections in late 2005, attempted to stir up the
domestic political scene with unsubstantiated speculation that Aliyev
cut a secret deal with Bush to make Azerbaijani bases available to US
forces. A report posted April 27 on the Day.az web site quoted Isa
Gambar, head of the anti-Aliyev Musavat Party, as saying, “now it is
time for official recognition of the existence of such agreements
between Azerbaijan and US.”
Upon his return to Baku, experts expect Aliyev to follow up on his
democratization rhetoric with reforms — both substantive and
symbolic – that are designed to improve Azerbaijan’s international
image. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Arif
Yunusov, head of the Conflict Prevention Department at the Baku-based
Institute for Peace and Democracy, suggested that Aliyev might reopen
channels of communication with his political opponents, adding that
the opposition could very well win a few additional seats in repeat
parliamentary elections, scheduled for May 13.
Mammadov said that Aliyev’s enhanced international stature could
prompt him to undertake liberalizing economic and political changes.
“There is no elections scheduled in the country soon and the
opposition is weak, so the president may easily initiate some liberal
steps and reforms,” Mammadov said.
Concerning the Karabakh issue, Azerbaijani officials are now looking
forward to the next meeting of the OSCE Minsk Group, which
Mamedyarov, the foreign minister, indicated would convene May 2 in
Moscow. The Minsk Group is charged with mediating peace talks, and
Baku’s expectations are high that US negotiators will press for a
settlement that conforms to Azerbaijan’s wishes. “They [US officials]
need stability in the South Caucasus given the rise of tension over
Iran,” Yunusov said.
Editor’s Note: Shahin Abbasov is a free-lance journalist based in Baku
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
