AZERBAIJAN: TRYING TO KEEP WASHINGTON AND TEHRAN HAPPY
Shahin Abbasov and Khadija Ismailova

Eurasianet
5/05/06

Iran is dangling the prospect of greater cooperation on Caspian Sea
energy issues in order to secure Azerbaijan’s neutrality in the ongoing
confrontation with the United States over Tehran’s nuclear program.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad met with his Azerbaijani
counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, in Baku on May 4, ahead of an Economic
Cooperation Organization summit. According to the official IRNA news
agency, Ahmadinejad expressed a desire to increase bilateral energy
cooperation. Such a development could have profound regional economic
and political ramifications, given that Iranian-Azerbaijani tension has
served as a major obstacle to the development of Caspian Sea energy
resources. In 2001 and 2002, Iran resorted to gunboat diplomacy to
force Azerbaijani to halt development of the disputed Araz-Alov-Sharg
offshore oilfields [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Ahmadinejad did not offer specific ideas concerning possible
Azerbaijani-Iranian cooperation, although he expressed an interest in
having Iran serve as an export conduit for Azerbaijani oil and gas,
IRNA reported. The offer seemed clearly designed as an incentive for
Azerbaijan to remain on the sidelines of the international crisis
revolving around Iran’s nuclear ambitions. [For background see the
Eurasia Insight archive]. The US government, which is convinced Iran
intends to develop atomic weapons, has openly contemplated using force
to compel Iran to abandon its nuclear program. Iranian officials
insist the program is designed solely for peaceful purposes. At a
May 5 news conference in Baku, Ahmadinejad reiterated the Iranian
government’s intention to proceed with its nuclear program, while
criticizing the United States. The Azeri-Press Information Agency
quoted the Iranian leader as saying; “If nuclear weapons are bad,
why do they [Americans] have them? If they are good, then why can’t we
[Iranians] possess them?”

The Iranian nuclear issue figured prominently during Aliyev’s visit
to Washington in late April [For background see the Eurasia Insight
archive]. Many political analysts in Baku believe US officials sought
Azerbaijani support for possible efforts to thwart Iran’s nuclear
ambitions. Aliyev publicly ruled out any involvement in such an
anti-Iranian coalition.

During his Baku visit, Ahmadinejad emphasized the benefits of
neutrality. IRNA reported Ahmadinejad as telling Aliyev that “national
resolve on the part of the two nations to develop cooperation would
neutralize the conspiracy of the enemy to sabotage Tehran-Baku
relations.”

Aliyev was generally tight-lipped about his discussions with
Ahmadinejad. The Azerbaijani president’s press service told journalists
only that Aliyev welcomed the Iranian proposal to explore closer
energy ties, while stressing “the importance of historical links”
between Azerbaijan and its southern neighbor. At an ECO-related news
conference, Aliyev indicated that he backed a negotiated solution to
the Iranian nuclear crisis. “All issues that are provoking concern
should be resolved peacefully, in the spirit of talks, to maintain
the fragile stability in our region” Aliyev said.

The Aliyev administration’s position is buttressed by widespread public
opposition among Azerbaijanis to US policy toward Iran. “All recent
surveys conducted in Azerbaijan show the raise of anti-American moods
in Azerbaijani society,” said Arif Yunusov, head of the Conflict
Prevention Department at the Baku-based Institute for Peace and
Democracy.

The ECO summit — bringing together representatives of 10 states
in the Caspian Basin, as well as Central and South Asia — examined
several regional issues, including Caspian Basin energy exports, and
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Aliyev expressed hope that ECO could
help break the existing stalemate in Karabakh peace talks. He also
asserted that Kazakhstani participation in the BTC pipeline was not
needed to fill the export route to capacity. Aliyev said Azerbaijan
would export upwards of 50 million tons of oil via BTC by 2008,
the APA news agency reported.

Editor’s Note: Shain Abbasov and Khadija Ismayilova are freelance
journalists based in Baku