EVEN IF ARMENIAN BILL PASSES, IT IS DIFFICULT TO ENACT
By Ali Ihsan Aydin

Zaman Online, Turkey
May 17 2006

The bill, criminalizing denial of the Armenian genocide, will come
before the French National Assembly tomorrow (on Thursday).

The fate of the bill, prepared by the main opposition Socialist Party
(PS), is bound to the attitude of members of Union for Populist
Movement (UMP).

Armenian organizations declared a mobilization for convincing UMP
members, most of who are against the bill.

The government, under the auspices of President Jacques Chirac,
can drop the bill from agenda and slow the process down.

Such a move would make it difficult for the bill to be enacted even if
it gets approval from parliament. The first step is a voting session
that will be held tomorrow prior to an examination of the bill.

If a decision to discuss the bill emerges from the vote, all eyes
will then be turned to the Assembly Speaker Jean-Louis Debre.

Debre, who is opposed to the bill, might extend the session and drop
the bill from the agenda.

Zaman examined the process that the French Assembly will follow in
discussing the bill.

It is reported that the bill’s voting has started to transform into a
“prestige struggle” between President Chirac, who is opposed to the
bill, and UMP leader Nicholas Sarkozy who supports it.

The bill prepared by the main opposition Socialist Party (SP) needs
to pass the commission in order to reach parliament.

Last month, the SP decided to bring the bill to parliament by using its
“right to determine the agenda” given to French parties in proportion
to the number of deputies.

The law proposals, which come to the parliament’s agenda in this
way, can reach the general assembly even if they are rejected in
the commissions.

The Legal Affairs Commission had rejected the bill without examining
its articles last week.

The bill will be discussed in the morning session when the PS is
given priority and exercise their “right to determine the agenda”.

The government will also reveal its opinion about the bill.

Then, the Assembly Speaker will hold a preliminary voting session
since the bill was rejected by the Legal Affairs Commission before
passing to a discussion of the bill.

In the voting session, deputies will be asked whether to “examine
the agenda or not?”

If the essential majority cannot be achieved for a discussion of the
bill, the proposal will be dropped from the agenda.

This voting is a critical threshold for the future of the bill.

The draft will be negotiated in case of an “investigation” result in
the pre-election.

The voting is scheduled for the morning session because the “niche”
right has a time limit.

The government will again have the right to determine the agenda in
the afternoon session.

The draft would be off the agenda if the investigation or voting is
delayed to the second session.

Sources, sharing their assessments with Zaman on the process, said
the French Parliament has tapped the Speaker of the Parliament,
Jean-Louis Debre, at this point.

Citing it is rare for the speaker of parliament to lead the general
assembly, in which motions raised by the opposition are discussed;
experts regard Debre’s decision to lead the session tomorrow as
“reasonable and strategic.”

Debre, who has voiced his opposition of the draft, could in theory
drop the bill by delaying the voting to the second session.

Noting Debre’s sympathy for French President Jacques Chirac and his
supportive view Turkey, sources predict there is a high probability
of this.

The ballot of the majority of the current members of parliament is
required for the proposal to be passed from the parliament.

There were nearly 30 representatives in the general assembly when
the “genocide” law was voted in 2001. The high participation rate
of the representatives will decrease the chance of the proposal to
pass tomorrow.

Meanwhile, UMP has 364 members while PS has 150 in the 577-seat
French Parliament.

Senate is also a Powerful Obstacle

If parliament passes the draft bill, the bill needs to wait for the
senate’s approval.

Parliamentary experts say the “niche” right in parliament will not
be effective in the Senate and the bill will have to wait the same
as any regular agenda item decided by the government.

It means the bill can only be discussed in the general assembly if
the government approves it.

On the other hand, the bill must to be ratified by the Senate in the
same way the parliament did.

A bill is sent to the parliament to be examined even when a proposal
of a small amendment regarding the text is approved. This process
can take some time.

The opposition Socialist Party (PS), which passed the so-called
genocide bill using the support of the “niche” during its ruling
period in 1998, faced the same Senate obstacle.

When the Senate did not put the bill suggesting “France openly
recognizes the 1915 Armenian genocide” on the agenda, a group of
senators presented a new proposal to the Senate with the same clause
and requested an “urgent discussion.”

The bill was approved by this method and sent to parliament again,
however, it was not approved until 2001.

The president’s approval is required to implement the bill if it is
passed by the senate.

French President Jacques Chirac has the right to send the bill back
to parliament.

Parliamentary sources and experts stress that the conditions in France
now are much different than those in 2001 and the chance that the
bill will become a law is not not high because of the government’s
opposition.