ARMENIAN PAPER SPECULATES ON FUTURE OF KARABAKH TALKS

Aykakan Zhamanak, Yerevan
17 May 06

Excerpt from report by Armenian newspaper Aykakan Zhamanak on 17 May
headlined “Is Oskanyan being canny?” by Anna Akopyan

Yesterday Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan made a sensational
statement. He did not rule out the signing of a document at the
forthcoming negotiations on the Karabakh issue. Certainly, Oskanyan
did not divulge any details but gave a strong hint.

In reply to questions from journalists, the minister said that if
his meeting with Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov in
Strasbourg goes ahead as planned and the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs
visit to the region yields positive results, the two presidents might
also held a meeting.

[Passage omitted: reiterates the point]

The very fact of signing the document is not as important as Armenian
Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan’s hint. Generally speaking, the
Armenian side, which has always been very restrained when it comes
to the Karabakh settlement talks, has recently started to divulge
information about visits by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs and a
possible meeting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents and
predict the “strengthening of positions” at the ministerial level.

Thus the “message” to the world community and mediators is that Armenia
is ready for this kind of development. Incidentally, Vardan Oskanyan
stressed yesterday: “If at all possible we shall try to bring our
positions closer.” He also added: “The Karabakh settlement process
goes its way; one should continue to work towards settling the issue
as soon as possible.”

Judging by the fact that Robert Kocharyan has refused to go to Vilnius
and Paris, one might come to a conclusion that the Armenian president
has been trying to avoid events where there might be any mention of
the Karabakh conflict. Under the circumstances, Vardan Oskanyan’s
intense activities and readiness for settling the Karabakh conflict
as soon as possible and the “message” that he directed at the world
community are surprising.

Since Oskanyan would have never made such a statement independently,
without agreeing it first with Robert Kocharyan. Evidently Robert
Kocharyan and Vardan Oskanyan have a joint programme of actions.

According to the programme, Oskanyan has been allocated the role of
“cover” for Robert Kocharyan. That is to say, at the time when Robert
Kocharyan thinking of how to avoid meeting Aliyev, Vardan Oskanyan
talks about the OSCE Minsk Group and the possibility of meeting
Azerbaijani officials and signing the document.

Certainly, we cannot rule out that such actions are part of a broader
picture, the goal of which is to blame the failed talks on the
Azerbaijani side. The next two weeks will bring clarity as the next
Kocharyan-Aliyev meeting is expected to take place at the beginning
of June.

[Passage omitted: quotes from Azeri press and the world community
has big expectations]