AMERICA’S NEW ALLY?
By Frederick W. Stakelbeck Jr.

FrontPage magazine.com, CA
May 18 2006

Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev’s three-day visit to Washington in
late April to discuss economic and regional security issues marked an
important step forward in U.S.-Azerbaijan bilateral relations. “My
trip to Washington covered all aspects of our relationship,” the
44-year old Aliyev said. Seeking to solidify his country’s ties to
the region, an enthusiastic U.S. President George W. Bush noted,
“Azerbaijan is a modern Muslim country that is able to provide for
its citizens and understands that democracy is the wave of the future.”

President Ilham Aliyev, who succeeded his father Haidar as head of
state after his death in 2003, has quickly become a critical U.S.
ally, as other nations in the region such as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan
have slowly distanced themselves from Washington. Located between
Russia and Iran with a population of 7.8 million people, Azerbaijan
has been an important strategic partner in the war on terror, sending
troops to both Afghanistan and Iraq. The country has also allowed
the use of its territory by the U.S. military, cooperating with
the Pentagon to modernize a former Soviet-era airfield and granting
permission for U.S. military over flights.

Plans were recently announced for the U.S. to modernize one radar
station near the Iranian border at Lerik and another near the border
with Georgia at Agstafa. Joint work has also commenced on two radar
stations on the Russia-Azerbaijani border and Iran-Azerbaijani border
to monitor Caspian Sea traffic.

Although bilateral cooperation has accelerated recently,
U.S.-Azerbaijan relations are not entirely rosy. Promised political
reforms have progressed slowly in Baku, the country’s capital, with
the U.S. openly criticizing the presidential elections in 2003 and
parliamentary polls last year as “seriously flawed.” President Aliyev’s
election was marred by allegations of corruption and brutal crackdowns
on his political opposition, drawing some international observers to
compare the leader to Belarus strongman President Alexander Lukashenko.

A pending criminal case in New York federal court against an
Azerbaijani oil company in which Aliyev served as vice president
has also raised questions regarding the president’s past. Moreover,
president Aliyev’s recent bellicose statements concerning his country’s
deadly conflict with neighbor Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh
territory that left 30,000 civilians dead, has raised red flags
in Washington.

Domestic problems aside, the energy resources of Azerbaijan have
propelled bilateral relations forward. Washington remains determined to
reduce its energy reliance on less-friendly governments in the Middle
East, Africa and South America. The 1,000 mile long Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
oil pipeline, which bypasses both Russia and Iran from the Caspian
Sea to the Mediterranean Sea, is testimony to the rising importance
of the country’s energy sector and its ability to play an integral
role in U.S. energy security.

According to Azerbaijani government sources, the country’s oil reserves
range from 7 to 13 billion barrels. Daily oil exports reached 319,000
barrels per day (bpd) in 2004 and are expected to reach 1.1 million
bpd by 2008. Natural gas reserves are also substantial, estimated at
30 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). Flush with cash, foreign investors are
flocking to the country hoping to secure lucrative exploration and
development contracts, with investment increasing an astounding 30
percent, or US$4.4 billion, in 2004 alone.

Beyond democratization and energy, the complex issue of Iran drives
the current U.S.-Azerbaijan relationship. As a Shia Muslim nation,
Azerbaijan shares close ethnic and religious ties with its southern
neighbor. As a result, Baku strongly opposes the use of force against
Iran in the current nuclear crisis, “Our position has not changed —
the problems should be resolved by diplomatic means,” president Aliyev
said during his visit to Washington.

Baku’s developing relationship with Tehran is an ongoing concern
for Washington. During 2005, president Aliyev and Iranian President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad met three times, providing a glimpse of how close
the two countries have become. “Relations between the two friendly and
fraternal countries are rapidly developing,” Aliyev noted in a December
meeting with Ahmadinejad in Nakhchivan, an Azerbaijani enclave.

Earlier this month, the two leaders met in Baku, with president
Ahmadinejad expressing both his desire to increase energy cooperation
with Azerbaijan and his growing dissatisfaction with U.S. efforts aimed
at halting Iran’s nuclear program. To ensure Azerbaijani neutrality
and counter U.S. influence, Iran reportedly offered to serve as an
export conduit for Azerbaijani oil and gas.

Tehran’s early efforts seem to be paying off. Public opinion polls
in Azerbaijan show a growing tide of anti-Americanism. “All recent
surveys conducted in Azerbaijan show the rise of anti-American moods
in Azerbaijan society,” noted Arif Yunusov, head of the Conflict
Prevention Department at the Baku-based Institute for Peace and
Democracy.

Azerbaijan’s increased contact with Iran could place the country in a
difficult position, as the U.N. Security Council considers punitive
measures such as economic sanctions or even military action. In
essence, Baku’s position of non-interference on the Iran nuclear
issue gives Washington little room for geopolitical maneuvering. The
country’s strategic importance during any military conflict with Iran
should not be underestimated. Azerbaijan shares a 370 mile border
with Iran, and successfully sealing it would be an important first
step to stem the transport of necessary supplies and weapons to Iran.

“One concern is to keep Azerbaijan on board regardless of the
administration’s policy toward Iran, because Iran is a neighboring
state,” noted Dr. Martha Britt Olcott, a senior associate at the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.

Azerbaijan offers the U.S. a number of attractive strategic options
during a perilous time in world history. The Bush administration
remains committed to maintaining a significant economic, political
and military presence in the region to offset possible Iranian
aggression. However, Washington must be careful when making regional
alliances to address emerging threats, otherwise, ambitious leaders
like president Aliyev could initiate a dangerous game of political
gamesmanship resulting in regional chaos, rather than stability.

Frederick W. Stakelbeck Jr. is a foreign affairs expert. He can be
reached at Frederick.Stakelbeck@verizon.net.