ARMENIAN PAPER EXPECTS STRASBOURG TALKS TO BE “DIFFICULT”
Aykakan Zhamanak, Yerevan
13 May 06
Excerpt from report by Armenian newspaper Aykakan Zhamanak on 13 May
headlined “They are taking Kocharyan to Camp David” by Anna Akopyan
Three months of efforts by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs to revive
the Karabakh settlement process that died in Rambouillet have finally
produced results. In a few days time talks will resume in Strasbourg.
The Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers are going to meet
there. There is every reason to believe that the talks in Strasbourg
will be difficult. After the three-month-long lull, Azerbaijan will
undoubtedly come forward with an unprecedentedly harsh position.
There have been serious changes in world politics since the
Rambouillet talks over three months ago. And the changes are not in
favour of Armenia. First of all we are naturally talking about the
new US attitude to Azerbaijan. After a meeting between George Bush
and Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan’s position on the Karabakh conflict
settlement became stronger.
[Passage omitted: reported reax to Aliyev’s visit to Washington and
Azerbaijan’s membership of the UN Human Rights Protection Council;
Karabakh may also be discussed at the summit in St Petersburg in June]
Incidentally Azerbaijan hopes that the Camp David scenario of 1978 will
be used for a peaceful settlement of the conflict between Azerbaijan
and Armenia over the Karabakh.
[Passage omitted: US President Jimmy Carter made the president of
Egypt, and the prime minister of Israel, sign a peace agreement at
Camp David].
According to analysts, unlike before the USA and Europe will now
push for a quick settlement of the Karabakh conflict because of
new developments in the region, including over Iran. All of this is
happening against the background of energy problems.
[Passage omitted: more on Camp David]
The Azerbaijani side wants the USA to put pressure on Armenia so
that the latter signs the document on the negotiating table. Under
the document, the status of Karabakh will not be specified and
Armenia will be forced to leave five to seven occupied territories
of Azerbaijan. In view of such developments we cannot rule out that
Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan may fall sick or President
Robert Kocharyan may hurt his leg.
But to avoid the signing of the document on the Karabakh settlement
Robert Kocharyan might use not just the above mentioned options but
other arguments. Under the circumstances, if the USA decides to go for
the Camp David scenario, the NKR independence will be all but memory.