ARMENIAN SPEAKER QUITS
By Rita Karapetian in Yerevan
Institute for War & Peace Reporting
May 18 2006
Resignation of parliamentary chairman may be a prelude to a bid for
the presidency.
A year before the next parliamentary election in Armenia, the speaker
of parliament has resigned, opening up a serious rift inside the
governing coalition.
Artur Baghdasarian made his shock announcement on May 12, declaring
at the same time that his Orinats Yerkir (Country of Law) party was
going into opposition.
Orinats Yerkir was one of three pro-presidential parties that formed
the ruling coalition in 2003, along with the Republican Party of
Armenia and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (generally known as
Dashnaktsutiun). As the second largest party with 20 out of the 131
seats in parliament, Orinats Yerkir was awarded the post of speaker
and the ministries of town planning, education and science, as well
as culture and young people.
The coalition has been slowly breaking up, and prior to Baghdasarian’s
announcement, the three parties had already announced their intention
to run separately in next year’s parliamentary election.
Bagdasarian, 37, has indicated that he has ambitions for the next
presidential election, due in 2008. A lawyer by training, he speaks
good French and is identified with the policy of integrating Armenia
into European institutions, as well as with social justice for
the poor.
Tensions within the coalition reached crisis point in April when
Orinats Yerkir deputies voted against the government’s progress report
on its privatisation programme.
The party’s deputy leader Mher Shahgeldian told journalists that
Baghdasarian had informed the prosecutor general of specific cases
of abuse in the privatisation process.
In a later interview with the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine
Zeitung on April 19, Baghdasarian said that if the next presidential
election involves the same level of fraud as the last one, “neither
domestic nor external forces will accept them”.
Baghdasarian also said that Armenia hoped to become part of NATO and
that Russia should not put obstacles in the way of that happening.
This provoked an irritated response from President Robert Kocharian,
who said, “Armenia does not intend to join NATO. Membership of the
[Commonwealth of Independent States] Collective Security Treaty and
the current high level of military technical cooperation with Russia
is sufficient to ensure the security of our country.”
Kocharian added that Armenia had no plans to aspire for European
Union membership, either.
The president said he met the parliamentary speaker every week, so that
“it was strange to learn what his point of view on this was from the
German press”.
However, Baghdasarian then reiterated his views in a speech to
parliament, saying that both he and his party supported stronger
relations with NATO and that they saw the country’s future within
the EU.
Baghdasarian’s coalition partners rejected his views, and said he
had no right to use parliament as a platform for them.
Kocharian’s press secretary Victor Soghomonian said the president was
convinced that the departure of Orinats Yerkir did not spell crisis
for the coalition.
“A change in the composition of the ruling coalition is a normal
event in any civilised country,” said Soghomonian. “Nothing unusual
has happened, particularly if you consider that there have been
differences of opinion inside the coalition and it’s only to be
expected that these would come to a head in the pre-election period,
as we have seen over the last month.”
Orinats Yerkir itself had already begun to split into pro- and
anti-government factions, so only nine members of its parliamentary
group followed their leader into opposition. That has allowed the
government to retain its parliamentary majority. Two of the ministers
holding posts awarded to the party are staying in their jobs.
Deputy speaker Tigran Torosian of the Republican Party is widely
expected to be elected as the new head of parliament.
David Petrosian, political commentator for the Noyan Tapan news agency,
thinks Baghdasarian has ambitions to become Armenia’s version of
Mikheil Saakashvili or Viktor Yushchenko – the leaders who emerged
from the Georgian and Ukrainian revolutions.
But his close association with the current regime makes that unlikely –
“People whose hands are clean don’t get involved in dirty business,”
remarked Petrosian.
Political analyst Stepan Grigorian said it was not yet clear how
Orinats Yerkir would position itself now.
“Time will tell whether Orinats Yerkir really becomse an opposition
party,” he said. “If it teams up with political forces that are really
in opposition to the authorities, then it is possible that there will
be a movement similar to those in Georgia and Ukraine.”
Veteran opposition leader Vazgen Manukian argues that the withdrawal
of Orinats Yerkir from government is a momentous event which shows
how the authorities both create and destroy political parties.
However, opposition deputy Shavarsh Kocharian speculated that the
apparent split was in reality coordinated with the authorities so as
to create a loyal “opposition” party.
Describing the ex-speaker as a politician driven by ambition, Kocharian
(no relation of the president) said, “It is obvious that in certain
circles in the West, there is a favourable view of Baghdasarian. But
if this trend is to last or strengthen, it will depend on whether
the people accept him.”
Rita Karapetian is a correspondent with Noyan Tapan news agency.