AZERBAIJAN TO RECEIVE SOUTHERN PART OF IRAN, AND ARMENIA – NAGORNO KARABAKH?
Regnum, Russia
May 18 2006
Launch of military actions against Iran would necessarily destabilize
the situation in the South Caucasian region, Head of International
Relations Problems Department at the Political and Military Analysis
Institute Sergey Markedonov has told to a REGNUM correspondent.
At the same time, he treated skeptically the prospect of military
actions in Iran. “Launch of a military operation in the Islamic
republic would force the US to transform all its military system. The
war in Iraq has shown that the US Army formed on the basis of contracts
cannot endure two wars,” noted Sergey Markedonov. “Iran is a large
country with 70 million population. Taking into account this as well,
the war is not profitable for Americans, as the US will have to switch
to draft and mobilization, and American society is not ready for it,”
believes the analyst.
According to him, in case of a military operation against Iran, Georgia
would support this campaign, as it has already chosen a pro-American
position. “Positions of both Azerbaijan and Armenia on this issue are
very complicated. Ilham Aliyev’s behavior in Washington has shown
Azerbaijan’s concern, because, if it supports the USA, Iran would
strike Azerbaijan in response,” the expert noted adding that in theory
a variant of exchange is possible. “If the operation is a success,
Azerbaijan gets southern part of Iran, and Armenia receives Karabakh,
but it is only theoretical,” concluded Sergey Markedonov.