STATUS QUO IN THE CAUCASUS FAVORS ARMENIA ONLY
Hakob Badalyan

Lragir.am
19 May 06

The status quo in the South Caucasus is favorable only for Armenia
among the three states of the region, stated Russian Member of
Parliament Constantine Zatulin, expert on external relations, on May
17. The Russian member of parliament mentioned that the problems of
Karabakh, Abkhazia and South Osetia do not allow Georgia and Azerbaijan
to approve the status quo.

In the meantime, Zatulin thinks that the status quo is better than the
most ambitious plans of changing it. His next statement emanates from
this opinion or vice versa. Zatulin says unlike the United States,
Russia is the power which is highly interested in keeping the status
quo in the South Caucasus.

Zatulin, of course, does not specify with facts or reasons why
the United States should not be interested. The Russian member
of parliament emphasized the possibility of actions against Iran,
which would be disastrous for the South Caucasus. However, it should
be noted that the United States has asserted for a number of times
directly or indirectly that they will not use the South Caucasian
states for actions against Iran. The evidence to this is the loyalty
of the United States towards the Iran-Armenia cooperation, as well as
all the energy projects that include the region and enjoy the support
of the United States. In addition, during Aliev’s visit Bush announced
that it is not going to launch a campaign against Iran, which means
that the United States is not likely to turn the Caucasus a military
polygon. In the meantime, there are a number of facts which contradict
to Zatulin’s words, regarding the interests of Russia, and the next
statement he made in Yerevan is enough to doubt Zatulin’s frankness
concerning the status quo.

The Russian member of parliament says Armenia is the only country in
this region where there is no threat of dissolution of the state.

Zatulin says Georgia and Azerbaijan have scores of problems with ethnic
minorities, which are still sleeping but can wake up. What is this
if not a threat addressed to these countries, considering that Russia
has too many buttons to push alarm. For us, it is especially evident
in the case of the Armenians of Javakkheti, when Russia withdraws
its military installations, allegedly reluctantly, and the Armenians
protest against the pull-out. Seemingly it favors Russia, and is an
excellent card for the trade on the pull-out of the military bases. But
the Russian Federation is likely to take up a different strategy and
demands that the Georgian government guarantee the security of the
pull-out of the Russian military equipment from Javakheti. In other
words, facts come to confirm Russia’s likelihood to instigate new
conflicts in the South Caucasus rather than to maintain the status quo.

Yet another statement by Zatulin on the maintenance of the status quo
contains a suspicious dose of frankness. Zatulin argues that Armenia
is the only country in the region, which is totally interested in
the status quo in the region. Zatulin’s statements seem to favor
Armenia. This is quite ambiguous, however. First, it is essential to
find out the degree of change of the status quo required for regional
integration. The settlement of conflicts implies, nevertheless, certain
inevitable changes. And under these circumstances it appears rather
vague how beneficial the role of a “devotee of the status quo” is for
Armenia, if it can clash with outlooks for regional integration. In
fact, Zatulin appears to be placing responsibility for the status
quo, probably also the failure of outlooks for regional development
on Armenia. And his assertion that Russia is the most loyal defender
of the status quo among the outside forces is but political blackmail
against Armenia. Hence, in the beginning Zatulin places responsibility
on Armenia, definitely blames Armenia, and then immediately declares
Russia the defender of the stance of Armenia, which is guided by the
principle “you have not other way?”