“INTELLIGENCE BRIEF: MONTENEGRO VOTES FOR INDEPENDENCE”

PINR – Power & Interest News Report
May 23 2006

On May 21, 55.4 percent of Montenegro’s voters chose independence
from Serbia in a referendum held in this former Yugoslavian republic.

The European Union had decided that the poll would be valid if the
result surpassed 55 percent. As a result, Podgorica will soon be
independent from Serbia.

Montenegro’s political decision has important geopolitical
implications. First of all, Serbia will lose its last access point
to the Mediterranean Sea and will be from now on a country without
coastal outlets. Belgrade will be separated from Montenegro for
the first time since 1918 and will likely soon face a reinvigorated
pro-independence push in Kosovo. Fifteen years after conflict erupted
in the former Yugoslavia, Serbia has lost its maritime dimension
completely and is now dramatically reduced in size. Its future is
in the European Union — unless the E.U.’s enlargement process is
stopped indefinitely, which is unlikely for the moment — but it will
access the European club as a minor power, with much less strategic
and economic capabilities than only one decade ago.

Second, the E.U. will now have to integrate yet another state. As the
period preceding the referendum showed, Montenegro’s complex political
and religious geography is a source of conflict and will keep the new
state’s political risk high in the coming years. This means that the
E.U. will need to cope with a predictable lack of investment in an
already poorly industrialized country. Extreme political fragmentation
in the Balkans will remain a key issue in European security policy
and will demand more attention from Brussels.

Serbia will be more dependent than ever on the E.U. for its future
economic prospects, and Brussels will need to design a viable road map
to integrate its Western Balkanic countries. Whereas Croatia can count
on Austro-German support, the future is more complicated for the Former
Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia, Albania, Serbia, and Montenegro —
whereby political instability in Kosovo and Montenegro will play a
crucial role in these area’s chances to integrate successfully into
European structures.

Brussels is, however, in a difficult position. The European
Commission postponed until October 2006 its final say on Bulgaria’s
and Romania’s accession, and does not appear to have “digested” the
2004 big enlargement. The E.U., however, would risk even more if it
did not successfully integrate the former Yugoslavian region because
of identity-based conflicts that may explode once again without a
credible external power functioning as a stabilizing force.

Montenegro’s independence also bears consequences for Russia and for
Moscow’s relationship with the Western geostrategic realm. Moscow’s
historic ally, Serbia, will be a less palatable partner than before
because of Belgrade’s reduced geopolitical weight. Moreover, should
regionalist pushes continue to advance in the broader region from
the Adriatic to the Caucasus, Russia’s historic sphere of influence
will be marked by other secessions, such as Transdniester (from
Moldova), Abkhazia (from Georgia), and possibly Nagorno Karabakh
(from Azerbaijan).

Look for secessionism, political instability and political risk to
continue to undermine the post-Cold War geopolitical environment in
Eastern Europe and the Caucasus. Expect the European Union to reassess
its enlargement strategy, whereby the question of the E.U.’s internal
political configuration will need to be re-addressed and effectively
resolved. The E.U. government will be under pressure since the question
of an E.U. constitutional draft is already starting to take center
stage in public policy debates. The political management issue and
the very viability of the European single currency will also soon
surface as unexpectedly complicated issues that will dominate the
agenda during the next two years.

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR) is an independent
organization that utilizes open source intelligence to provide conflict
analysis services in the context of international relations.

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